SpaceX Starship Update 10. Februar 2022 Musk präsentiert das Starship/Super-Heavy-Update 2022 in Starbase mit einem vollständig gestapelten Starship hinter sich und behandelt dabei die Pläne für Orbitalflüge, die Raptor-Triebwerke und den Mars.
Musk präsentiert das Starship/Super-Heavy-Update 2022 in Starbase mit einem vollständig gestapelten Starship hinter sich und behandelt dabei die Pläne für Orbitalflüge, die Raptor-Triebwerke und den Mars.
Transkript SpaceX Webcast Host
Four and a half minutes. We are heading off to the lox tank. We are beginning to flip to horizontal and the white cloud, the plume you were seeing was intentional. There is a liquid oxygen dump. We've now transitioned to horizontal and beginning the subsonic test portion of the flight where we check out the aft and the forward flaps to hold the vehicle stability as we descend back to the landing pad. We're down beneath one and a half kilometers. We're preparing to restart two engines, flip the vehicle vertical and transition to one engine for the landing burn. Two. One. Ignition. 1km altitude.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Just past one minute into flight. We're through 2km altitude. All three Raptor engines continuing to burn. Next major event, about one minute is we will turn off the first of the three Raptor engines. Past people. That's four minutes in the flight. We've got views back from the Raptor engines. Plus 4 minutes 34 seconds. While we are working to regain video. It looks like we've got a shot looking back at the flaps on Starship. We're in the horizontal descent phase now. We're passing 6km, a reminder phase that's coming up. As we get ready for landing, we will light three Raptor engines, flip the vehicle from horizontal to vertical. If things look good, we will shut down one Raptor engine and then possibly a second one. Land on a single engine and we have ignition. And Starbase Flight control is confirmed. As you can see on the live video, we are down. The Starship has landed. We're going through the safing sequence in the flight computer right now. Will be back in a moment. Four and a half minutes. We are heading off to the lox tank. We are beginning to flip the horizontal. The white cloud, the plume you were seeing was intentional. There's a liquid oxygen dump. We've now transitioned to horizontal and beginning the subsonic test portion of the flight where we check out the aft and the forward flaps to hold the vehicle stability as we descend back to the landing pad. We're down beneath one and a half kilometers. We're preparing to restart two engines, flip the vehicle vertical and transition to one engine for the landing burn.
Elon Musk
Three, two, one.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Ignition. 1km alt. It. Just past one minute into flight. We're through 2km altitude. All three Raptor engines continuing to burn. Next major event, about one minute is we will turn off the first of the three Raptor engines. Past T, plus four minutes in the flight. We've got views back from the Raptor engines. Plus 4 minute 34 seconds. While we are Working to regain video. Looks like we've got a shock. Looking back at the flaps on Starship, we're in the horizontal defense descent phase now. We're passing 6km, a reminder phase that's coming up. As we get ready for landing, we will light three Raptor engines, flip the vehicle from horizontal to vertical. If things look good, we will shut down one Raptor engine and then possibly a second one, and land on a single engine. And we have ignition.
SpaceX Webcast Host
And Starbase flight control is confirmed. As you can see on the live video, we are down. The starship has landed. We're going through the safing sequence in the flight computer right now. We'll be back in a moment.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Four and a half minutes. We are heading off to the lox tank. We are beginning to flip the horizontal and the white cloud, the plume you were seeing was intentional. There's a liquid oxygen dump. We've now transitioned to horizontal and beginning the subsonic test portion of the flight where we check out the aft and the forward flaps to hold the vehicle stability as we descend back to the landing pad. We're down beneath one and a half kilometers. We're preparing to restart two engines, flip the vehicle vertical, then transition to one engine for the landing burner.
Elon Musk
Three, two, one.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Ignition. 1 km altitude.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Just past one minute in the flight. We're through 2km altitude. All three Raptor engines continuing to burn. Next major event, about one minute is we will turn off the first with the three Raptor engines. People us, four minutes in the flight. We've got the views back from the Raptor engines. Plus 4 minute 34 seconds while we are working to regain video. Looks like we've got a shot looking back at the flaps on Starship. We're in the horizontal descent phase now. We're passing 6km. A reminder phase that's coming up. As we get ready for landing. We will light three Raptor engines, flip the vehicle from horizontal to vertical. If things look good, we will shut down one Raptor engine and then possibly a second one and land on a single engine. We have ignition. All right.
Elon Musk
Welcome, welcome, welcome, welcome. Welcome to Starbase. So it's been almost two years since our last update and a lot has happened since then. By the way, I'm getting like a strange audio feedback. I don't know, do I sound okay to you guys? Okay, great. So it's been two years since we had our first Mark 1 rocket and a lot has happened since then. We're going to go through the progress, but I'm just incredibly proud of the SpaceX team and all the support that we received from Cameron county, from Brownsville, from Sao Padre. I know some of you in the audience, so thank you very much for your support. So before we jump into the details of what's happened over the past two years, I think it's worth just talking a bit about this. Like why are we doing this? You know, this, I mean, pretty epic, but what's the sort of, the sort of deep meaning behind this? Like why build a giant reusable rocket? Why make life multi planetary? And I think this is just an incredibly important thing for the future of life itself. So, and there's both the, I call it the sort of the defensive reason or the life insurance reason. That's one part of it, which is that there's always some chance that something could go wrong on Earth. The dinosaurs are not around anymore. So you know, we could, there could be some calamity that we, where we do ourselves in or there's just, there's a natural disaster. Now I'm, I'm naturally an optimist, so I think the probability of that is low, but it is not zero. And, and eventually the sun will expand. It might take a few hundred million years, so don't hold your breath, but eventually the sun will expand and destroy all life. So for those who really care about not just the humans, but all the life on Earth, it is very important, essential that over the long term that we become a multi planet species and ultimately even go beyond the solar system and bring life with us. And you know, we are life stewards, life's guardians. You know, the creatures that we love cannot, they can't build spaceships, but we can, and we can bring them with us. And I think that's pretty important, you know, for those that care about the environment and care about all the creatures on Earth. So that's like, I would say like the defensive or the life insurance reason for life collectively. But there's also an inspiring reason which is that life can't just be about solving problems. They have to be things that inspire you, that move your heart, that make you glad to be. When you wake up in the morning, you're excited about the future and going out there and being a multi planet species and being a space bearing civilization and making science fiction, not fiction forever. I think that's one of those things, you know, I think that's just, that's what fires me up the most, is like, let's go out there and find out what this universe is all about, are there other species out there? Maybe, hopefully it's, I mean, we want to go find out what the heck's going on. What is going on? I mean, how do we get here? What's the meaning of life? 42 but what's the question? And you know, if we go out there and we explore the galaxy, ultimately then we can find out some of these questions and it would just be very exciting to do that and something we can all look forward to. And even, you know, whether somebody chooses to go or not, I think, you know, vicariously we can all go there. Just like with Apollo where, you know, only a handful of people went to the moon. But in a sense we all went there, humanity went there. And so even if somebody doesn't choose to go themselves, I think vicariously through others, they will go, they will understand, they will experience the universe. And I think that's incredibly fundamental to an exciting future. And that's, that's why we're doing this. And yeah, now one of the rebuttals we'll sometimes hear is like, sure, but what about all the problems on Earth? And I completely agree that the vast majority of resources should be dedicated to solving problems on Earth. Absolutely. I'd say like more than 99% of our resources should be oriented towards solving problems on Earth. But it's important to Note that like NASA's annual budget is only 0.36% of the federal budget and in fact of the national gdp, it's less than a tenth of a percentage percentage point. So it's like we're only spending 0.1% of our resources on space. I think that's okay, we'll be fine. So just make sure people don't think like, well, is he suggesting that we just spend everything on space? No, I'm suggesting we'd like maybe half a percent or something like that. We'd probably be ok. So, and I think, you know, given establishing security for life itself and having exciting future and inspiring, you know, kids about the future, I think it's worth it basically. Yeah. So, well, how do we do this? How do we make life multi planetary? What's the first step? And the essential technology, the holy grail breakthrough that's needed is a rapid and completely reusable rocket system. So this has never been accomplished before and a lot of people for the longest time thought this was not possible. Now with Falcon 9, we've been able to show that you can have reuse of a boost stage and reuse of the fairing. So with Falcon 9, we've demonstrated a lot of reuse of the boost stage and of the fairing. We have over 100 reflights of the fairing over of the booster and I'm not sure of the fairing number, but it's a lot and that's a big step in the right direction. With Starship, we're aiming for full and rapid reusability. So. You know, we obviously need to accomplish that. That's not done yet, but. But the success is one of the possible outcomes, which I always think is when embarking on an endeavor, success should be at least one of the possible outcomes. And for this design that is the case. And we're aiming for rapid reusability, which is why the booster is going to take off and then fly back to the launch tower and aspirationally get land on the arms, which does sound insane, or as Bul Raleigh would say, audacious. But if it does come in too fast and sheer off the arms, then I guess it will be a farewell to arms. The dad jokes, you know, I just have to warn you, they're only going to get worse. So yeah, so here I'd really just like to congratulate the SpaceX team and also thank NASA, the FAA, the Space Force and everyone and all of our customers that have helped us get to those point. It's insanely hard to get a rocket to orbit. Insanely difficult. I have huge respect for anyone who's gotten a rocket to orbit. It's so hard. And we've had 144 successful launches, 106 landings. Yeah, I mean these days I have to look on the Internet, say, how many landings have we had? I'll have to ask the Internet. So 83 flight proven launches. And although I have to say I still have like launch PTSD every time the rocket takes off, I'm like, ah, you know, I just see all the ways that it could fail, like,
Elon Musk
you know, and then this year we're actually aiming to have around 50 launches. So it's about a launch per week on average. And yeah, so it's hell of a year we got ahead of us. And in terms of mass to orbit, if you look at like tonnage to orbit, this, this bar chart that we'll show here really illustrates how profound a rapidly reusable rocket, especially a big one, is. What effect that has on total tonnage to orbit. So the total mass to orbit to date of earth is around 15,000 tons, maybe 15, 16,000 tons. And the mass per starship after a year, just one Year of launching, if it launches three times a day, would be equal to all the mass of to orbit of Earth to date. That's just one starship launching three times a day for a year. Now if you have, you know, 10 starships, ish, then, and we'll have more than that. Our goal is to be making at least one stack per month and then ultimately potentially a ship. Every three days there'll be more ships than there are boosters. Because the, the booster actually, even though it's gigantic, will come back in about six minutes. Excitement guaranteed. So it only takes about two minutes on ascent and then about four minutes to return. So you'll know soon the ship has to complete at least one orbit around Earth and sometimes maybe three orbits or more. And each orbit is 90 minutes. So the ship is probably, you know, reusable about every six to eight hours. That's why we say sort of three times a day for the ship. And in theory the booster is capable of being reused every hour. So the propellant pumps are designed to fill the rocket in about half an hour. So this really is designed for rapid reusability. So if you can do roughly a million tons to Earth orbit, that's comfortably over 100,000 tons to the surface of Mars, maybe 150,000 tons, depending on how good the landing system is. So you can only go to Mars every two years. So and I think maybe roughly you need about a million tons on Mars to have a self sustaining city. The critical threshold I think for Mars is to have a city that is self sustaining. It's going to be incredibly difficult to make a self sustaining city because if it's missing any ingredient at all,
Elon Musk
minor that ingredient is, then if the ships from Earth stop coming for any reason, the city will die out. So the critical threshold to pass one of the most important great filters for any species is to have, have the other planet no longer dependent on the original planet. So I don't know exactly what that tonnage is, but I suspect it is at least if one tries to get the right order of magnitude, about a million tons. Hopefully it's not more than that
Elon Musk
is capable of doing that. It's capable of, of getting a million tons to the surface of Mars and creating a self sustaining city. And I think we should try to do that as soon as we can. The window of opportunity may be open for a long time, and I hope it is, but it may also be open for a short time. And this is the first, this is the first point in the four and A half billion year history of Earth that it has been possible. I mean, let that sink in. If there's a sink, let it in. Still knocking at the door. I mean, it's a sentient sink, let's face it, let it, I mean, come in. So four and a half billion years, it's been a while. This is the first time it's been possible. We need to seize the opportunity and do it as quickly as possible. I mean, to be frank, civilization is feeling a little fragile these days. And like I said, I'm an optimist. But I think we've got to protect the downside here and try to build that city on Mars as soon as possible and secure the future of life. And it's going to be an incredibly exciting adventure. Now the sales pitch for going to Mars is that it's going to be cramped, dangerous, difficult, very hard work, you might die. And that's the sales pitch. I hope you like it. So far from being some sort of escape hatch, it will be extremely difficult and dangerous and tough. Mars is a fixer upper of a planet and so it's going to take some work to make it easy to live there. But one day we could make Mars a planet like Earth. I think we should. So just some facts about starship and these numbers will evolve over time. So the height of the ship is about 50 meters, 164ft. The 9 meter or 30 foot diameter, well you can just see it. Basically it's got about 1200 tons of propellant on the the ship and thrust is about 1500 tons. Now these numbers will probably add more propellant over time, increase thrust, diameter will stay the same. It's a huge pain to change diameter, so that'll tend to stay the same, but it'll probably get a little bit longer. And we're expecting payload capacity of 100 to 150 tons depending on which orbit. So to a STARLink orbit, roughly 100 tons. Over time I think we can probably get the orbit for orbital refilling, the payload to an orbit for orbital refilling to about 200 tons, which is going to be very important for getting to Mars. So for getting to Mars you also need the orbital refilling. Just like you have aerial refueling, the rockets will need orbital refilling. It's actually mostly oxygen. There's three and a half tons of oxygen for every one ton of fuel. So that's why it's refilling, not refueling. Heat shield. So this is the world's largest heat shield. And this is, we actually make this at our little factory in Florida near Cape Canaveral. We call it the Bakery. And we're actually using a lot of techniques that are used for roofing tiles. So we need to have a heat shield that is capable of resisting extreme heat but also is not crazy expensive. And our heat shield team has done amazing work in creating the world's largest heat shield and one that is reusable but also robust and low cost. So it's not, it's not a crazy money heat shield. And yeah, need good heat shield technology for entering from ovid orbital refilling. We were going to do an animation of this but it looked a bit wrong. It is a fluid transfer. So yeah, play a little Barry White, you know. So that's one of the technologies that is necessary for getting to Mars. So the ship would get to orbit with, with its payload. And then in orbit we would refill the tanks so it have enough repellent to get to Mars. Mars is far. So now this is essentially docking in orbit and with Dragon docking with the space station, this is a technology that we've, that SpaceX has become quite good at. We've done I think at this point a couple dozen dockings with the space station and it's actually way harder to dock with the space station than to dock with yourself. So this is, you know, it is a thing we need to solve for Starship and I'm confident that we can do this because we've done a lot of orbital docking already with Dragon. But this is going to be an important thing to demonstrate. Won't be necessary in the near term for Starlink launches, but it will be necessary for Mars and the moon. So let's see the super heavy booster. So it was 70 meters but then there was an extra half barrel section that the team deleted and totally accidentally at 69 meters it's also booster four and ship 20. I mean this is a pure coincidence. Those numbers won't leave me alone. I hope it's good luck. So yeah, so propellant capacity is like around 3,400 tons. I think these it will increase over time, probably get to 36, maybe 3,800 tons. Thrust is around 7,600 tons. That'll probably increase too over time. Just to put this into perspective though, the Saturn V was 7 1/2 million pounds of thrust and Starship is 17. So it's more than twice the thrust of a Saturn V which was quite. That's the largest rocket ever to get to orbit. It's worth noting, super heavy is the largest flying object of any kind or will be. It's. Yeah, very big. You can see it right there. That booster has 29 engines. The next booster, we actually increased the engine count to 33. We've kind of bounced around on engine count, but because I think at one point we had like 37 engines and then we went to 29. We finally settled on 33 engines, which is about actually the most number of engines you can actually fit under that booster without like expanding the diameter.
Elon Musk
And then this tower. This tower from design to construction was 13 months. So it's quite an epic structure. It's really worth emphasizing that the whole launch system, which is basically Stage zero, is I'd say as complex and difficult as either the booster or the ship. So I really want to emphasize that this is a very difficult thing that requires a lot of hardcore engineering. And it's really like I said, the tower and the launch system, which I call Stage zero is just as important as Stage one and Stage two. I mean this is really some wild stuff here. In fact, I mean hard to believe it's real except you know, right there. So yeah, Then Raptor development, Raptor 1 was 185 tons of thrust. Raptor 2 is 230 tons of thrust. And I think over time we can get that to probably 250 tons. So that's. And it's also significantly simplified. So you can see the difference between V1 and V2. The V2 is. V1 looks kind of like a Christmas tree, spaghetti pile, a lot of fiddly bits. And V2 is greatly simplified while also increasing thrust at the same time. So it actually Raptor 2 costs about half as much as Raptor 1 despite having much more thrust and I think just generally being a much easier engine to build and a more robust engine. So very excited about Raptor version 2 and it's only going to get better from here. So yeah, so Raptor 2 is pretty sick. And we've actually, the peak thrust that we've operated, Raptor 2 at this point is 247 tons. And so I'm confident that with some improvements we can get to a 250 ton operating point and continue to simplify and sort of robustify the engine. So it's really, it's a spectacular piece of engineering. Extremely difficult to make and succeed. This is. The engine has been mind bogglingly difficult, but it is one of the essential keys to, I mean it is essential obviously to making starship work. It'll be the first full flow Stage combustion engine to. To get to orbit. Yeah, kind of need that ISP and thrust await.
Elon Musk
why Starbase? A lot of people like to say, like, why Starbase? Why here? And we kind of needed a confluence of factors getting to orbit. You want to launch eastward so that you have help from Earth's rotation. So the closer you are to the equator, the more of a sort of a boost from Earth rotation that you get. So you want to be as south as possible and launch eastward. And then, you know, it's always possible that something goes wrong. And so you want to have a good clear area. You want several miles around the launch site to be unpopulated or at least clearable. And that doesn't actually leave a lot of options. It's basically here and Cape Canaveral or Cape Kennedy is. Where are the two possibilities? And then because we have had a lot of launches going out of the the Cape, we didn't want to disrupt the Cape activity. The operational launches with sort of the advanced R and D of Starship. So it was important to decouple the operational launches from the, from the R and D launches. And that's why we're at this location. And once again, I'd just like to thank Cameron county and Brownsville, South Padre and the remaining residents of Boca Chica Village, where I live, by the way, it's my primary residence is that little village over there. So. And it's been great. It's been great being here and yeah, like super. Appreciate the support of the community. Yeah. Anyway, thank you. So I think we've got a video to show what we hope will happen with launch. Play it now. Oh, wait, sorry. We have some upcoming Starship missions. Orbital flight is really just the beginning. So we're going to have a number of Starlink missions that will launch StarLink satellite version 2. But even more exciting than that is the NASA human spaceflight mission. We're incredibly honored to that. NASA has selected Starship to take astronauts back to the moon for the first time in half a century, which is kind of mind blowing. I'd just like to say SpaceX is just deeply honored and appreciative that NASA would, would choose us for this incredibly important mission. And we'll get it done. And then there's also the Dear Moon mission, which is going to take artists around the moon and that's Yusaku Miyazawa and he's going to select, I think, a dozen artists and do a loop around the moon, which will be very exciting. And there's going to be Some future announcements that I think people will be pretty fired up about. So anyway, super exciting future ahead with. There'll probably be a few bumps in the road, you know, but we want to iron those out with satellite missions and test missions and get to a high flight rate and then have something that's extremely reliable for human spaceflight. So, yeah. Satan sam sa. Sa. All right, Let's make this real. Any questions? Let's make this real. Fire away.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Anyone?
Elon Musk
I can't see you, so you probably just have to yell it out or something. Yes, there's six Raptors on Starship currently, three with the vacuum nozzle, three sea level. Sorry. And I think if I would say, like, we'll probably end up adding another three vacuum engines that kind of, you know, fill in the gaps and stretch the ship, I think is going to make a lot of sense. You'll have to yell. Unfortunately, we are building a launch site, a starship launch tower at 39A at Cape Kennedy. And we're also building a starship production facility at the Cape. So we'll have production facility and launch site here and a production facility and launch site at the Cape as well. It's important to have redundancy.
Reporter
It's Irene Klotz with Aviation Week over here.
Elon Musk
I've got lights in my eyes, so unfortunately I can't see. I'm blinded. I can hear where the speaker is coming from.
Reporter
You should. I believe you're expecting to hear in a couple weeks about the possible finding of no significant impact from the faa. Have you gotten any indications if that's going to come through? And what is your time frame for the orbital flight test? Thanks.
Elon Musk
Well, we don't have, we don't have a ton of insight into the, where things stand with the faa. We have gotten sort of a rough indication that there may be an approval in March, but that's all we know,
SpaceX Webcast Host
Hi, Elon, Marcus Hervey. Can you talk about the point to point capability? Is there a possibility between here and Cape Canaveral?
Elon Musk
Oh, well, yeah, I guess technically, yes. So, I mean, depending on how good things get with Starship, there are some scenarios where it might actually be the lowest cost means of transporting cargo long distances. So the interesting thing is that the capital efficiency of a rocket is much better than the capital efficiency of a plane for long distance flights. So if you. Now this would really be more for, you know, if you're going like, I don't know, a quarter or a third or halfway around the world, where, you know, if you went from. I don't know, say here to Singapore or something like that's a long flight. So I mean, I don't know how long that is. I'm not sure you can even go there nonstop, but it's probably like 20 hours plus and in a rocket it would be less than an hour, so like 45 minutes or thereabouts. So that means you'd be able to use the rocket 20 times more often than an aircraft. So it's 20 times the capital efficiency. So provided the propellant cost is competitive with aircraft. And bear in mind, like I was saying, there's three and a half tons of liquid oxygen for every one ton of fuel. So and liquid oxygen is basically just the cost of electricity and you know, because it's in the air basically. So there is a scenario where it's economically compelling to do long distance cargo and people transport with starship. That'd be very cool and I think that that'd be great for getting a lot of high flight rate and you know, a business case for supporting a lot of starships operating. Basically nothing's faster than, you know, a nice evm. We got a question right here, Elon.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Right in the middle, right here. Right.
Elon Musk
Hands up, hands up in the. I mean it's, I literally have lights in my eyes and I. It's pitch dark in front of me.
SpaceX Webcast Host
It's fine. Hi, Elon. Michael Sheets with cnbc. You opened this presentation by addressing a little bit of the criticism that's been aimed at space travel being seen as maybe a pet project or not really valuable to folks who have problems here on Earth. I was wondering if you get a little more into the specifics on comparison. Not just the US government spending that's happening on space travel versus other things, but maybe in terms of SpaceX itself, how you and private investment on a dollar value compares to the taxpayer funded projects or contracts that SpaceX has won over the years.
Elon Musk
Well, I think, you know, objectively the cost efficiency of SpaceX is the best in history, I think for any rocket development. And we are talking about, you know, a rocket that's more than twice the mass and thrust of a Saturn V and also designed to be fully reusable, which is obviously also much better for, from an environmental standpoint to have a fully reusable rocket for a development cost that is, I don't know, between 5 and 10% of Saturn v. So that's pretty good because we need to make it work. So it's not worked yet, but it will work. Might be a few bumps along the road. But it'll work. I feel at this point highly confident that we'll get to orbit this year. That's, you know, we're making a lot of rockets, making a lot of engines. We're close to achieving one Raptor two every day production rate, so sort of seven a week, which is tough for a complex engine. And I think by the end of this year we'll be able to produce a ship and a booster per month. So this is, this is, I don't know, at least an order of magnitude, maybe, maybe two orders of magnitude more efficient than anything in the past. Yeah.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Hey Elon, this is Joey Roulette from Supercluster. Just wondering what does SpaceX's plan and timeline look like if the FAA ultimately decides to do a deeper environmental review of Starbase? And then one other thing, you might be able to give us an updated figure on what it cost costs to Starship and what it would cost a customer to buy a flight on one. Thanks.
Elon Musk
Yeah, I mean I am optimistic that we will get approval. Like I think they're objectively, I think this is not something that will be harmful to the environment. We've obviously flown the ship several times and done multiple landings and takeoffs and landings. We fired the engines a lot. So I think the reality is that it would not have a significant impact. Now of course that doesn't mean things don't get delayed from a regulatory standpoint and we are in a litigious society and so there's always sort of lawsuits from someone city. So now we do have the alternative of the Cape and we actually applied for environmental approval for launch from the CAPE a few years ago and received it. So we actually are approved from an environmental standpoint to launch from 39A. So I guess our worst case scenario is that we would, I don't know, be delayed for six or six to eight months to build up the Cape launch tower and launch from there. From a cost standpoint, the costs will improve significantly over time. So because it'll take us a moment to achieve full reusability and full rapid reusability, we'll probably lose a few vehicles along the way. With Falcon 9, I think it took us 14 or 15 attempts to successfully land the first booster. I don't think it'll take us that many with Starship because we have that experience. But it's, but certainly not a sure thing that it'll work the first time. From a cost standpoint. I mean it's a 100 ton capability to orbit on a marginal cost to Launch basis. That doesn't count fixed costs which obviously have to be covered. It may be as little as a few million dollars per flight, maybe even as low as a million dollars per flight. So this is crazy. These are crazy low numbers by space standards. Crazy low. Now we do have to cover fixed costs. So depending on what our launch rate is, we have to divide the fixed cost by the number of launches. So the more launches that happen, the lower the total cost. Fully considered cost per flight would be. But I'm highly confident it would be less than $10 million all in over. You know, if you say like fast forward like two or three years from now, I think it's highly likely to be everything included. Less than $10 million a flight for 100 ton to orbit capability and 100 tons to a useful orbit. Not to a low orbit, to a low orbit it'd be 150 tons. So this is ridiculously good by compared to everything else. And it should be because you think of like if this was a, if aircraft were not reusable, how much would an air ticket cost? I mean, you know, it's like for, I don't know what you know, a 787 or 777 goes for these days. I don't know, a few hundred million dollars. If you had to spend $200 million every flight, it would be very expensive to fly somewhere and you'd need two of them for another one for the return trip. So it would obviously be absurd. So you can imagine if we were in a world where aircraft were expendable and then someone came along with a reusable aircraft. It would be an absolutely profound game changer. That's what needs to happen for life to become multi planetary. And that's what this design I'm confident is capable of that. It's just a question of how long it will take to refine that and have it really dialed. Hi, hi,
Reporter
sorry. This is Andrea Leinfelder of the Houston Chronicle. I wanted to know when and how do you plan to test starship refueling in space? And also aside from NASA, Dara, Moon and Starlink, can you elaborate on the potential customer base for starship? Thank you.
Elon Musk
I apologize. Actually I zoned out for a second. I was thinking about something. Could you say that question again?
Elon Musk
maybe we have some mic issues.
Reporter
Okay. When and how do you plan to test starship refueling in space? And aside from NASA, dear Moon and Starlink, can you elaborate on potential customers for starship? Thank you.
Elon Musk
I think orbital refilling and I want to emphasize it is refilling, not refueling, because it's three and a half times as much oxygen than fuel. So we mostly are carrying oxygen up there. Optimistically, towards the end of next year, I think I'd be surprised if it's longer than two years for doing the refilling. And there are a lot of additional customers that will want to use Starship. I don't want to steal their thunder, that's they're going to make their announcements and so. But I think this will get a lot of use, a lot of attention. It's like I said, you know, once we make this work, it's an utterly profound breakthrough in access to orbit. And when you have an utterly profound breakthrough, the use cases will be hard to imagine. I mean, you know, when aircraft first came along, they were. Aircraft were viewed as toys. Like they were like a novelty, not a means of transport. They were like, oh, look, we can fly like a bird, briefly for. Briefly and dangerously for a few minutes. You know, nobody at the time, at least I think very few people at the time, thought that there would be a global aircraft industry with airports throughout the world carrying people to every part of Earth in ridiculously short periods of time. You know, when the Wright brothers first took off, I mean, most people were just riding horses. So you're like, you know, like riding a horse. See, this crazy device looks like witchcraft. And they would not have imagined that there would be aircraft flying, tens of thousands of aircraft flying to every corner of the world. So I think we made. This really could be an extremely profound situation. And we really can't even imagine all the use cases at this point.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Hi, Elon, this is Steve Clark with the Brownsville Herald. Thank you for the presentation. So if the FAA does come back
Reporter
and say we need an eis, does
SpaceX Webcast Host
Starbase bounce back from that at some point?
Elon Musk
Yeah, I mean, it would obviously set us back for quite some time because an EIS takes a lot longer than an ea, so we would have to shift our priorities to Cape Kennedy.
SpaceX Webcast Host
And long term, what do you envision for Starbase? Like a spaceport with flights coming and going and Starship manufacturing or. What is the future role of Starbase?
Elon Musk
The future of Starbase? I think it's well suited to be kind of like our advanced R and D location. So it's like where we would try out new designs and new versions of the rocket. And then I think probably Cape Kennedy would be our sort of main operational launch site. And then, I don't know, over time, I Think there's going to be, we'll have floating spaceports, like ocean spaceports. We, we got these two converted oil rigs that are, that are going to be turned into orbital launch sites and they can be moved around the world. So, you know, that I think there could be quite a few of those. You know, I think about like, if I think about like what would really work for long distance travel because the rocket is quite loud, you want to be, you know, I don't know, 20 miles away from a major city or 30 miles away from a major city, just so you don't, you know, you're not disturbing people too much. So I think probably most of the launch sites long term will be
Elon Musk
of ocean or sea spaceports. So like maybe located like 20 miles, 30 miles offshore. And this would allow Starship to connect any cities that are on the ocean or on the sea and have a high flight rate, but without disturbing people too much. You know, I think people are willing to, you know, have, have something that's loud occasionally, but if you want to have it frequently, then it probably needs to be offshore.
Reporter
Hello, Elon, I'm Cam Gerlach with the SpaceX Reddit community. So you've talked a lot about how Raptor 2 is crucially important for starship development and for the future of starship. So I'm curious, what general improvements have you made with Raptor 2 to ensure it's not only more efficient and more powerful, but also much easier to produce and less expensive as well, and faster. And how do you plan to continue to iterate further on the design in the Future? So
Elon Musk
Rapture 2 is an almost complete redesign relative to Raptor 1. So basically everything from the tow machinery to the chamber nozzle, the electronics, basically everything's been redesigned. You can see the difference over there, the Raptor one versus Raptor two. A lot of the changes were deleting things. We deleted a lot, consolidated a lot. The rotating machinery, especially the inducers of the turbo pumps are a lot more robust. We converted a bunch of flanges to welds and actually over time we'll convert even more flanges to welds. I hate flanges, you know, especially if you've got high pressure and a cryogenic fluid or super hot gas. Flanges and seals are a nightmare. And so, you know, we've got parts of that engine that are, you know, sort of 7, 800 bars, sort of 11, 12,000 psi, which is nutty. And so just going to welded joints instead of flanges. Was pretty helpful. The preburner controllers have been consolidated into sort of a unified box as opposed to being kind of like all over the engine. So. And we're getting close to the point where I think Raptor will not need shrouds. So shrouds are a huge pain in the ass. Like basically putting a whole shield around the engine, especially for the gimbaling engines, where it's got to kind of like have like a sort of eyeball seal. Like it's like rotating in a circle with a hot gas seal. So with a bit more deletion and integration, I think the engine will be sort of flame proof, more or less. And. And then we can get rid of the shrouds, which would be a big mass savings. Yeah. So a lot more could go on. We're also operating at a higher chamber pressure. I think we can probably operate. I think over time we can operate it at 330bar sustained in the main
Elon Musk
and without having the pre runner pressures be too high. By essentially by losing less pressure, there's like a whole pressure ladder going from the turbo pumps and preburners to the main chamber. And by getting rid of a bunch of the choke points, we can have less pressure loss. And so the pumps can effectively produce more pressure in the main chamber due to less loss in the secondary systems. Do you have any specific questions or.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Sorry.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Chris Gephardt with NASA Spaceflight, can you talk a little bit about the abort modes that are available for ship? If there were ever to be a problem during the climb to orbit, what would be available to the crew in that regard? And also on that same level, the life support systems for ship, where do those stand and what are the challenges that you're finding with just the sheer volume in Starship? For that.
Elon Musk
Thank you. So Starship will not have an independent abort system, but I think something that would make sense is to have the thrust await of the ship be enough that it could do a. It could take off from the booster, even if the booster has a failure at the pad level. So if you get the thrust weight of the ship at sea level above one, then even if there is something goes wrong with the booster, the ship can essentially fly away from the booster. And so that's something that I think would be important for carrying people and also for high value cargo. To have the ship have thruster weight greater than one even at sea level. And then like I said, that would be like the nine engine version. And then even if you lost one engine, I think you should still be able to do an abort. So I think for crewed missions we would essentially maybe detank the ship to some degree so that you'd have
Elon Musk
of a launch abort capability with the ship, even if you lost an engine. That would be my recommendation. From a life support standpoint, we would have a sort of, sort of a renewable, like for long, you know, we could scale up the life support system in Dragon. That would certainly be an option. And that would work for missions that are say a week or two weeks. That would be fine. For missions to Mars, you'd want a life support system that is renewable. So it's essentially recycling everything in a closed loop system with close to zero lust mass. So that would be a more advanced system because you'd have to convert the CO2 back into O2 and kind of recycle, you know, poop and urine and stuff. Yeah, so that's a harder problem, but it's not an immediate problem. We can certainly scale up Dragon for any kind of missions that are, you know, a few weeks long.
Reporter
Hi Elon. Eric Berger with Ars Technica. Thanks for taking some questions. I'm wondering if you do get that approval from the FAA in March. I know that there's really no way of knowing, but could you talk a little bit about the hardware readiness? Sort of where you are technically, you know, the launch towers is pretty incredible, but sort of the rocket, the ground system, software, like if you were to get some kind of approval from the FAA in March, you know, would you be looking at, you know, how quickly could the hardware be ready to go?
Elon Musk
Yeah, I mean, I think we're
Elon Musk
to having the hardware ready to go. So right now I think we're tracking to have the regulatory approval and hardware readiness around the same time. Yeah, so yeah, around the same. You know, hopefully, you know, basically a couple months for both. Yeah.
Reporter
Hi, seth Krakowski with SpaceExport.com you mentioned
SpaceX Webcast Host
launching from the sea.
Elon Musk
Could you give us an update on
SpaceX Webcast Host
the current status of using Phobos and Deimos for starship operations?
Elon Musk
Yeah, so Phobos and Deimos thus far have been a relatively low priority. We needed to make the launch site here work. This has been quite a difficult endeavor. So we deprioritized the Phobos and Deimos and just last month we started to. We're going to take one of them and build at least a catch tower on it and ultimately we will ultimately, meaning like, I don't know, later this year, build a full launch capability on one of the platforms. So I think hopefully by the end of this year we will have a launch capability at cape Kennedy at 39A and on one of the ocean platforms as well.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Hi, Ellen. This is Adam Cardona with CBS4 and NBC23 here in the Rio Grande Valley. This is more of a community based question. This past week, several visd students, community leaders and community members got together to ask you a question and to show their gratitude. Not sure if you got that message yet, but they were saying, thank you, Elon, and they wanted to know if you would be able to attend their Charles Days festivities here in Brownsville. So on behalf of them, will you be attending Charles Days?
Elon Musk
It sounds like fun. So, like, when is it?
SpaceX Webcast Host
Believe it starts on the 19th through the 25th. So you have several days to attend Sombrero Festival, Charles parades, enjoy some great food. Will we see you there?
Elon Musk
I will be there.
SpaceX Webcast Host
All right. That's going to be hard to follow up. Hey, Elon, Tim Dodd, the everyday astronaut here. Okay, so a little bit more Raptor 2 talk again. Where are you at as far as production? How many do you have? You know, you, you know, are they, how are they handling, you know, testing? Are they more cantankerous, less cantankerous? You know, just give us a little more rundown, like on where you're actually at. Is that a bottleneck for the next booster as well? We assume the next booster is going to require. Yeah, you know, Raptor 2. So kind of where are you at with the production and the testing so far?
Elon Musk
Well, I mean, right now of any technical problem, I'm spending the most time personally on Raptor 2. Like really, they're like the two things that occupy the most number of mental cycles of Raptor 2 and Tesla Full self driving. So. The only remaining issue that we're aware of is melting the chamber. So that thing really wants to melt. You know, it's got like on the order of a gigawatt of heat, so it's pretty hot. Like a gigawatt is like what a nuclear power plant produces. So it really is desperately trying to melt at any point in time. So we've got, you know, we're flowing an immense amount of cryogenic fuel to cool the chamber in the channels. We have head end film cooling, we've got throat film cooling. And we're just trying to get the exact sort of balance between head end film cooling and throat foam cooling to not melt the chamber. I think we're pretty close. We have a couple engines in the stand that have, I think seven or 800 seconds of operation and several start cycles. So it's looking positive. But that's the remaining issue is melting the chamber. But in the meantime we're scaling up all production to get to one a day or better. So apart from melted chambers, we're doing well. We've got a lot of pumps, a lot of electronics, a lot of pre burner controllers. So just not melting the chamber, which is very difficult, is the kind of the last remaining challenge. But I think we're very close to solving that. And then the production system has a lot of momentum. Like I said, you know, we're really, you know, like next week we'll probably make at least five or six Raptor Twos, for example, and I think we'll be at a seven a week or better by next month. These are crazy numbers for rocket engines, by the way. Yeah. Hi Elon.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Robert Perlman with Space.com and collect space.
Elon Musk
You mentioned the NASA contract for the human landing system at one point.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Do you envision splintering off development of starship for hls or how are you
Elon Musk
going to balance the timelines of rapid reusability versus NASA's own schedule of when they're ready to go to the moon? I don't think there's really a conflict there. We're going to be making a lot of ships, a lot of boosters, obviously a lot of engines. Yeah, it's kind of interesting like the, with the booster with 33 engines and the ship with nine engines is 42. There we go again. And that was a totally total coincidence. So, you know, adding legs to land on the moon we do not think is like that can be done pretty quickly. So yeah, I don't really see any conflict between achieving rapid reusability and getting to the moon. Yeah, a high production rate solves many ills, so we're aiming for a high production rate.
Reporter
Hi, Lauren Grush with the Verge. I'm wondering if you can clarify the number of launches that you plan to conduct in order to do these refillings. I know a lot of numbers have been thrown around, so I'm wondering if you have landed on a final number and how quickly do you plan to launch those missions back to back to refuel the vehicle to get to the moon. Thanks.
Elon Musk
Yeah, so the, The missions would happen pretty fast for refilling the vehicles to minimize boil off of the cryogenic propellants. So for the vehicle going to the moon, we have some insulation to minimize boil off. But we'd probably be launching, I don't know, probably every few Hours aspirationally. So, yeah.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Hi, Elon. Kevin Haymeier from space eccentric on YouTube and rumble. My. Thank you. My viewers are really hungry to know anything about the interior design for crewed starship. You have hls, you have Dear Moon, and last we heard maybe a year or two ago you were looking to hire Tesla employees to design the interior for starship. How's that going? Well,
Elon Musk
we aren't focusing a lot on the interior quite yet. I mean that will be important down the road, but our focus right now is just getting to orbit and proving out return of the booster and return of the ship. Yeah, it's fundamentally very difficult to build a fully reusable rocket given the strength of Earth's gravity and the density of our atmosphere. Like there's not. You can't have a lot of mass margin. So our focus is solving that rapid reusability. Like I said, we'll have a high production rate. So we're not dependent on rapid, we're not dependent on full reusability. But really that's the breakthrough that's fundamentally important to change the course of human civilization to become a multi planet species.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Elon, this will be the last question for you. Evening, Elon. Bob Duncan, I'm a local resident. Are we cutting out? Is that better? Hi, evening. My name is Bob Duncan, I'm a local resident here in the area. And first off, thank you for a very cool evening. So this has been a lot of fun for us as the local resident. It's been exciting to watch the amazing progress that SpaceX has made here in Boca Chica and I was just curious. We're standing on the southern tip of the state of Texas. We're a few hundred yards from your residence. Could you just speak to what, if anything, has been appealing or advantageous about operating in the state of Texas versus other parts of the country? Thank you.
Elon Musk
Well, I think we've, you know, the. Well, I mean, we've had a lot of support from the community and you know, something that just happens over time with societies is that kind of rules and regulations build up and they build up more in some places than others and they didn't, you know, I think Texas has the right amount of rules and regulations. Yeah. So. Well, thank you all for coming. I hope you've enjoyed the evening and I think we might be able to get you closer to the rocket if you'd like. And so we'll get you as close as possible while school being safe and yeah, feel free to take pictures. Have a good time. And yeah, let's go like hell. To have an exciting future. Thank you.
SpaceX Webcast Host
Sa. It.