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Reagan Beck
@bluemoondance74 · 14 нояб. 2020 г.
Pos or not, how’re you feeling?? Still the same cold-like symptoms? Fever?
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 14 нояб. 2020 г.
Cold symptoms are gone for now 😀🚀💫
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Stephen King
@StephenKing · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
You’re pos.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 14 нояб. 2020 г.
There are degrees of pos
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 14 нояб. 2020 г.
Ответ на @Rollinnthewind
Heneghan makes a lot of sense. Hilarious that he has to clarify that he runs the Center for *Evidence-Based* Medicine at Oxford 🤣🤣. General public doesn’t realize quite how much of medicine is subjective or outright witchcraft.
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whatsupfranks
@WhatsupFranks · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
@elonmusk
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 14 нояб. 2020 г.
The number of PCR amplification cycles required to detect the virus is a rough indicator of your viral load. From what I can gather, you’re probably not infectious above 30 & you probably are below 25. Sound about right?
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Ответ на @Rollinnthewind
This a great reference! Worth a read.
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Case closed
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Soon
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Pranay Pathole
@PPathole · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
And UK govt is using 45 cycles, each cycle amplifies the DNA to pick up the virus. Anything above 20 cycles and you are in absolute false positive zone. The NHS is using 45 cycles.
W.H.O on the other hand recommends using 50 cycles, let that sink in.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Fwiw, lab I just spoke to thinks below 30 is accurate, 30 to 40 gets dicey & above 40 is bs. Will talk to several more labs. There must be a graph of PCR amplification cycle vs false positive rate somewhere.
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
What is the general population (no knowledge of symptoms) accuracy of a sars-cov2 PCR test & is it possible to generate a false positive if you simply run enough cycles?
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Lab I just spoke to said cov2 PCR detection (N1 & N3 genes) below 30 cycles is reliable & above 40 cycles is not
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Just spoke directly to a testing lab. Their main PCR search is for the N1 gene, unique to cov2. N3 is also sought, but is generic to other sars viruses. High PCR cycle count *does* give false positives, but they believe accuracy is good below 30 cycles & 40 cycles is their max.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Note, this is not the spike protein. They don’t consider that reliable.
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Pope of Muskanity
@RationalEtienne · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
True, yet the flu has a very different disease pattern than COVID-19.
There's undoubtedly a percentage of covid cases that are actually just people with the flu. That percentage is more elevated in areas with low REAL covid cases, high real flu rate and elevated testing.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Just spoke directly to a testing lab. Their main PCR search is for the N1 gene, unique to cov2. N3 is also sought, but is generic to other sars viruses. High PCR cycle count *does* give false positives, but they believe accuracy is good below 30 cycles & 40 cycles is their max.
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Pranay Pathole
@PPathole · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
And UK govt is using 45 cycles, each cycle amplifies the DNA to pick up the virus. Anything above 20 cycles and you are in absolute false positive zone. The NHS is using 45 cycles.
W.H.O on the other hand recommends using 50 cycles, let that sink in.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Strange
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Moreover, lower the true prevalence, the higher the false positive number will be. This sounds obvious, but it could mean a very high false positive percentage if true prevalence is low.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Possible explanation for the dramatic decline in cold & flu prevalence vs prior years. If someone comes in with cold/flu symptoms & falsely tests positive for cov2, they will assume they have it, when in fact they simply have some other form of seasonal cold/flu.
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
From fda.gov/medical-device…
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Moreover, lower the true prevalence, the higher the false positive number will be. This sounds obvious, but it could mean a very high false positive percentage if true prevalence is low.
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Ryan Shea
@ryaneshea · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
What you want to know is the "positive predictive value" (PPV) AKA the chance of a real positive given a positive result
Every test is different - this PDF has data on hundreds
Abbott's ID NOW test, for example, has a PPV of 94%
csb.mgh.harvard.edu/covid
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
From
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𝔇𝔞𝔫𝔞 🌞
@daelmor · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
the variance in these comments is alarming.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Sure is
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
What is the general population (no knowledge of symptoms) accuracy of a sars-cov2 PCR test & is it possible to generate a false positive if you simply run enough cycles?
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Would be great to hear from people who know a lot about the PCR testing industry. What’s the approximate false positive rate, all things considered, for cov2 PCR tests?
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Ответ на @ClareCraigPath
Interesting
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John Beans
@john_beans · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
Interesting
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 13 нояб. 2020 г.
What is the general population (no knowledge of symptoms) accuracy of a sars-cov2 PCR test & is it possible to generate a false positive if you simply run enough cycles?
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