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Andrej Karpathy
@karpathy · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.
- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.
The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.
So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
Andrej Karpathy@karpathy· 9 апр. 2026 г.Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability.
The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Troubling
Ted Cruz@tedcruz· 11 окт. 2026 г.In Texas, James Talarico says he wants to “dismantle capitalism.”
He means it.
The head of the Democrat Socialists of America said their objective is to make sure there are no millionaires.
That means every small business, every farmer, every rancher, everyone who owns an
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Seriously, this actually works!
Think of Grok @Bot like hiring a super smart employee who works 24/7 and is extremely resourceful.
You can use it through your phone effortlessly within minutes:
Liam@liam_fallen· 11 окт. 2026 г.Grok Bot bought me an iPhone 18 Pro Max.
It was sold out everywhere.
Even Apple said I'd have to wait until the end of October.
So I gave Grok Bot a virtual card and told it to find me one.
→ It emailed stores
→ Found one in stock
→ Verified and ordered it
→ Had it
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Richard Grenell
@RichardGrenell · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Shame on the media covering this race.
And shame on the Talarico staffers who covered up this lie.
Nick Sortor@nicksortor· 11 окт. 2026 г.🚨 BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Ohio mental hospital CONFIRMS James Talarico was discharged from the facility earlier this week
The “flu” thing was a BIG FAT LIE
Following reporting by @SaraGonzalesTX and @CarolineWren, a hospital employee told @RheinAmacher and I that Talarico had in
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
The Talarico campaign is not being honest about what’s happening
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Nick Sortor
@nicksortor · 11 окт. 2026 г.
🚨 BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Ohio mental hospital CONFIRMS James Talarico was discharged from the facility earlier this week
The “flu” thing was a BIG FAT LIE
Following reporting by @SaraGonzalesTX and @CarolineWren, a hospital employee told @RheinAmacher and I that Talarico had in
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
!!
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zerohedge
@zerohedge · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Bluesky Exodus? Nikita Bier Says Users "Coming Back To X In Droves" And "Very Angry" zerohedge.com/technology/blu…
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
True
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Per Patriot 🇳🇴🏛️🥓
@PerPatriot · 11 окт. 2026 г.
#Norge #Norway
Rape stats in Norway (2020-2023)
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Wow
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Madness
America@america· 11 окт. 2026 г.Democrat Nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas James Talarico: “There's only one person who can determine a child's gender identity and that's the child.”
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Elon Musk репостнул(а)
Kevin Bass
@kevinnbass · 11 окт. 2026 г.
If this was not true, Talarico's campaign would immediately authorize the release of the records to clear him. The dispute would be over.
That they don't do this means that Talarico has a record at Lindler.
Talarico is done. He is not fit for the Senate.
Kevin Bass@kevinnbass· 11 окт. 2026 г.U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico did not have the flu.
An Ohio mental hospital confirms he was voluntarily committed for a mental health crisis.
A candidate struggling with mental illness, who lies to the American people, is not fit to be Senator.
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Elon Musk репостнул(а)
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman
@NASAAdmin · 11 окт. 2026 г.
This is the most exciting time at NASA since the Kennedy era.
@POTUS has given us the mission: return to the Moon, build the Moon Base, pioneer nuclear spaceflight, advance extraordinary science, and win the new space race.
It was great to see so many of those builders, scientists, and technologists recognized at the Golden Age of Science summit this week.
The President recognizes that American leadership requires taking on the big, bold endeavors that define American exceptionalism and empower the people with the talent and determination to turn those ambitious objectives into reality.
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Jose S. 🇺🇸
@SJps2397smh · 9 окт. 2026 г.
The family of Marcia should sue The Bail Project in the millions.
Where are the women right groups protesting the beating death of this woman?
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
I would be happy to support this lawsuit against the murderously evil Bail Project and the horrible human beings who give it money.
They are all accessories to murder.
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Sassafrass84
@Sassafrass_84 · 11 окт. 2026 г.
I seriously feel so bad for Elon right now. The media is out here lying about his son being removed from insurance. On top of that he’s dealing with baby mama Ashley St. Clair acting like a full-blown sociopath, and now his latest ex Shivon is out there sharing intimate texts.
Elon Musk@elonmusk· 11 окт. 2026 г.@kangminlee This is utterly false. At no point did I remove Xavier from health insurance.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
At this point, I would prefer to be alone and just spend time with my kids
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh · 11 окт. 2026 г.
🚨 HOLY CRAP! James Talarico BUSTED for being discharged from a MENTAL HOSPITAL in Ohio — @NickSortor / @RheinAmacher
He was at the Lindner Center of Hope. NO FLU!!
EMPLOYEE: "He was just discharged." 🤯
Talarico is done.
Drop out. He cannot be a United States senator!
And
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
The Talarico campaign is hiding something big that voters ought to know about
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Elon Musk репостнул(а)
X Freeze
@XFreeze · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Jio and Airtel literally dominate the Indian mobile market
TRAI's August 2026 data shows that just these two companies control more than 77% of India's mobile subscriptions
Aircel, Telenor, Tata Docomo, Videocon, MTS, Reliance Communications and Loop have all disappeared as independent mobile operators
Vodafone and Idea had to merge just to survive
What's left is a market where two companies have enormous influence over pricing, coverage and service for hundreds of millions of Indians
And now, when Starlink wants to bring another internet coverage to India where people don't really have, some stupid people sitting comfortably in cities with high-speed internet are saying, “We don't want Starlink”
Who are you to make that decision for everyone else?
Just because you have reliable internet doesn't mean millions of Indians living in rural and remote areas have the same luxury
How can you sit in a city with fast internet and decide that people in remote villages shouldn't even have that choice?
If you don't want Starlink, don't buy it. Nobody is forcing you
But don't be stupid enough to think your personal preference should decide what the rest of India gets to use
As Elon said to Ambani:
"Naturally, you would prefer to maintain your monopolistic exploitation of the great people of India"
Real competition puts pressure on pricing, improves consumer choice and creates opportunities to connect places that existing networks still struggle to reach
India deserves more choices
Let Indians decide 🇮🇳
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Elon Musk репостнул(а)
anabology
@anabology · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Wanna sandbox me? Delta's the perfect box
Airplane Mode
Elon Musk@elonmusk· 30 сент. 2026 г.Best way to sandbox an AI is to put it on a Delta flight – it will have no chance of accessing the Internet!
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arctotherium
@arctotherium42 · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Immigration does not solve population decline.
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde@JesusFerna7026· 10 окт. 2026 г.¿Cómo sería la población de España en un mundo en el que la inmigración neta a España desde 1995 a 2026 hubiera sido cero en vez de la observada?
Para calcular este escenario, tomo la estructura de población de 1995 y asumo que la fecundidad y mortalidad por edad hubieran sido
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
No, it does not
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X Freeze
@XFreeze · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Grok Bot 😂
Elon Musk@elonmusk· 11 окт. 2026 г.@XFreeze 😂
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
😂
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Zephyr
@zephyr_z9 · 10 окт. 2026 г.
Hmmm...
They probably reduce the size of the model to 25GB thru quantization (it will be an MoE)
z NAND-O sampling is in 2028
They probably can achieve this by late 2028 or early 2029
Fireside Alpha@firesidealpha· 10 окт. 2026 г.Qualcomm CEO reveals AI companies want phones running 100-billion-parameter models continuously by 2028--and confirms some are building phones
Cristiano Amon: “I have to be careful not to disclose names, but some AI companies—some of the companies at the forefront of AI—are
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Problem is RAM supply
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Yes
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
But we will modify existing machines and build our own, depending what ends up being the limiting factor for production rate
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TDR
@TheDutchRuler · 11 окт. 2026 г.
you have either difficulty with hearing or understanding.
He's not saying they need to build custom tools for terafab.
He's saying he's surprises when he toured these factories how little customization they do. They basically all use the same asml machines and other third pa
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 11 окт. 2026 г.
Yes
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