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Elon, let me start by saying we're very glad you're here safe and sound. Uh thanks. I actually had to sorry for being late. I was uh uh flying I flew here with the landing gear down cuz there was like some kind of landing gear issue. Landing gear was stuck? There's some kind of warning light uh my pilot said that if they were to retract the landing gear it may not go back down again. So So this happens to you this even happens to you. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Okay. I have landing gear problems of various kinds. Um so um anyway we're happy to wait for you and then we're glad you got here safe. Thanks for having me. It's great to see you guys. Thank you for coming. I really appreciate it. You kept your promise which was nice. I think you were drunk when you promised me but that's okay. I'll take it.

So you know in the couple of years since you've come you've done some astonishing things in in terms of substance of stuff with your with both of your companies. Um let's start talking about space and what you've been doing there. Um obviously you've had some success uh landing the landing the rocket. You've had you know you've done a bunch of other things that where people thought you weren't going to be successful.

Talk a little bit about sort of the progress you think you've made with SpaceX. Sure well I mean there's a lot of things where I I think I I didn't think we'd be successful. Um so the the um probably and the most significant thing is being able to land an an orbit class rocket uh booster stage um and uh and bring it both back to Cape Canaveral uh land to land and be able to land on a drone ship out in the ocean.

Um the um it it there is a bit of an education process that's needed to understand orbital dynamics um cuz a lot of people can are confused of like why the heck are you landing a ship uh landing a rocket in a on a ship in the ocean? That seems pretty inconvenient. Um and the the reason is because that uh going up and staying up is actually about velocity horizontal to the earth's surface.

So um there there's a huge difference between space and or space and or and orbit. It like space you can think of as like say being the international waters boundary for the Pacific Ocean. Like if you go you know uh 100 miles offshore you're technically out of Yes. coastal waters now you're in the Pacific. So it's like technically you're in the Pacific but but it's but orbit is like circumnavigating the globe.

It it's a really giant difference and the the reason that things go up and stay up is because you're you're zooming around the earth so fast that your outward radial acceleration is equal to the inward acceleration of gravity. And so those balance out and you have a net zero gravity.

So when you see the space station the thing that's little little sort of um counterintuitive is that the space station is actually zooming around the earth at 17,000 miles an hour. Even though it seems like it just really still you know but it's moving really really fast. Um I mean to put that into perspective um a bullet from a 45 um gun you know a handgun um is is is is uh just below the speed of sound.

So the space station is going more than 25 times faster than that. Um and that's what's needed actually to go up and stay up. Um and that's why that's why there's the term escape velocity not escape altitude. There's no such thing as an escape altitude there's only escape velocity. You need to be a certain speed to escape the gravity of the earth. Yeah you can think of gravity as kind of a funnel in space time.

Um so uh or think of it like a coin funnel.

Like it's it's really it's very much like that in in you know but it's obviously a sort of a four-dimensional coin funnel but uh if if you if you spin a spin a marble or a coin on a coin funnel the when it's when it's far out it sort of spins slowly and then as it gets closer it spins faster and faster and if you want if you want if you were to start at the bottom of the coin funnel and you wanted to to to to to to exit you'd spin it horizontally and it would it would spin out and and and that's really how you how you get to orbit.

Um Yeah so the gravity well is like a funnel. why you want to land on the on a ship in the ocean? Uh because um in order to get to orbit you all that matters is your horizontal velocity. Your altitude is doesn't doesn't really matter. Um in fact the the um the force of gravity at uh say the the nominal um boundary of space 100 km is almost exactly the same as it is on the surface of the earth. Hm.

Um it's it's like if it's a few percent lower than than the surface of the earth. Um uh so in in order to go up and stay up the only thing that matters is how fast are you going horizontal to the earth's surface. So you have that outward radial acceleration or think of it like maybe like tetherball or something like that. It's really that outward acceleration is the thing that matters.

Um and so when the rocket is going to orbit um the only reason it's going up is to get out of the thick part of the atmosphere cuz that at high velocity the atmosphere is thick as molasses. Um and so it goes up very briefly but if you look at a long exposure of the the rocket's uh trajectory you'll see it it goes up but immediately curves over and starts going horizontal.

Um and so the um at at the at the point at which the uh the uh the the point at which the stage is separate those two stages um the the primary booster stage which is the most expensive part of the rocket the point at which that that staging occurs uh can be um as high as uh Mach 10. Um but it's it's so it's going away from the launch site at 10 times the speed of sound.

So in in in order to get back to the launch site you would have to have enough I fuel and oxygen to reverse out that velocity and and and boost back all the way to the launch site. Um and you just don't have the physics of it don't really allow you to have that much it's it's not about saving money on fuel or anything it's just physically impossible.

Um so um because another sort of thing about uh if you're if you're in space is that there's nothing to react against. So like whereas an aircraft can can circle very easily because it's reacting against air. In vacuum there's nothing to react against.

So the only way to go back the other direction is to apply just as much energy as it took you to go it we if you want to go backwards you have to apply just as much energy as it took you to go forwards. In fact it would twice as much really cuz you got to zero it out and then you've got to You've got to land elsewhere.

Yeah so bottom line is this thing is zinging out to the point it may well be over the ocean cuz the ocean covers most of the ocean covers most of the uh the earth. So that's the point it may Oh it's it's it's actually the point of separation it's not that far away. It's maybe 100 km away from the the launch site but it is going like hell in the opposite you know away from the launch site.

So the the only way to really land it is to have it continue on that arc that ballistic arc and then land far out to sea on a ship that's that's pre-positioned to a particular latitude and longitude very very precise to within about a meter.

Um and then the the rocket will um then go from vacuum through rarefied air at hypersonic velocity uh um it and and what so when it's when it's in vacuum it has to obviously you can't use air surfaces you have to use um nitrogen jets to control the um the attitude and position.

And then um as it starts to encounter uh the air um we use um grid fins because grid fins uh look like sort of like a waffle um they work quite well across a wide regime from both very high velocity um hypersonic through supersonic transonic and subsonic. Um so it's hard to it's it's hard to have air surfaces that work well across that entire regime.

And then uh so once the air air forces become high it uses the um the four grid fins to to sort of control its attitude itself. Yeah it's it's controlling its it's it's controlling pitch yaw and roll with with the grid fins.

Um and uh and then once and those grid fins will then position it to where it's fairly close to the ship and then it will light in this case three of the nine engines to arrest the velocity and then drop to one engine for precision right before landing. Right. Okay. So that was a maybe a bit of a long explanation. but okay what we're going to get to is that's super [ __ ] hard. There's a video. So why why is that important?

Why has that this moment been important for you? Um well so in order to reuse the the booster stage which is about 70% of the cost of the rocket so that Which cost is that? How much is that? Um well I mean it's sort of on the order of 30 to 35 million dollars. Right. So you want to save that.

Yeah I mean it's like I try to I tell my team it's like imagine there was a pallet of cash that was falling through the atmosphere and it was going to burn up and smash into tiny pieces. Would you try to save it? Right. Right. Right. Probably yes. Yes. Okay. Yeah that sounds like a good idea. Right. Okay. Uh-huh. Um so so yeah so we we we we want to get it back and that way um we don't have to make another one. Right.

Um and I think it's quite tragic if rockets like get smashed into tiny pieces and land at the bottom of the ocean. a question? We we've been in we've been going to space for uh what, 50 years or something like that? Yeah. Nobody, until you started doing this and Jeff Bezos' company has done it, uh the government never thought of saving the rockets. They never saved the pallet of cash. Why not? And the Russians didn't either.

I mean, what what is the deal there? yeah, I mean there was some attempt uh made to do that with the the space shuttle but there was no um return. It's the first time that that a rocket booster has returned to launch site um from an orbital mission and and certainly the first time that there's been a a landing on a ship out at sea. regular rockets that went up that weren't designed like planes never tried to do this. Right.

Um the plane thing is not not a good idea in my view. Um the so so the the the plane um and the the reason I think it's like intuitively it seems like a plane should work but but actually if you you consider that really every mode of transport has a design that is appropriate to its medium. Um and if you're in space, um wings are not very useful. Um cuz there's no air.

Uh and and and then if you want to go somewhere other than Earth, there's also no runways. Uh-huh. So, this is these are important considerations. Um so that's why when they went to the moon, they used propulsive landing. Right. But what I'm saying was when they built the space shuttle, it sort of was like a looked like a kind of bulbous plane. appealed to Congress. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They went cool. It's cool. Yeah, looked like an airplane.

Can you explain the the you know, Jeff Jeff Bezos Good one. Jeff Bezos was here last night and I asked him, what's the difference between what you're doing and what Elon Musk is doing and he said, well, I think we have I think he used the word like-minded in the general sense of it and then he went on to explain some differences.

Do you And then he but he talked about and correct me if I'm misquoting him but I think he was saying, we're this is all about laying the foundations of being able to do greater things by getting the basic infrastructure of being able to reuse these rockets down. Right. Do you Is that correct? Do you have a similar starting point from him in your thinking process? I think there's certainly some similarities of opinion.

Um I think both uh Jeff and I believe that it's important for the future to be a spacefaring civilization um and actually ultimately be out there among the stars and I think that's the that's the exciting, inspiring future that I think I think certainly people in this room are wanting and anyone after seeing that the asteroids are going to destroy this planet.

I mean, Um I mean, I don't view it as um you know, we want we I mean, I I think I think what when I say, you know, multi-planet species, like that's really where we want to be. It's not like, you know, still being a single-planet species with moving planets. It's uh it's really being a multi-planet species um and having civilization and life as we know it extend beyond Earth to the rest of the solar system and ultimately to other star systems.

Um I think that's the thing that that's the that's the future that's exciting and inspiring and I think that's what, you know, I think you know, you you need kind of you need things like that to make to to to be glad to wake up in the morning. You know, the like life life can't be just about solving problems. Like there have to be things that are inspiring and exciting that make you glad to be alive.

So, what in the immediate time frame, what is what is your goal for SpaceX now that you've done this, which is a huge accomplishment? What is the plan for you in the immediate time and then the longer range? Sure. So, the um so we plan to re-fly uh one of the landed um rocket boosters hopefully in about two or three months, something like that. Um and um and then that that so that'll be an important milestone.

Um so far the the the stages are looking like quite quite good uh even though they come through through quite there's a really difficult entry re-entry situation. Um but they're they're looking in fact they're in they're in good shape. Um we now have four of them.

Um so, we want to start re-flying them um you know, towards the end of summer um and then uh hopefully by the end of this year we'll be launching Falcon Heavy uh which will will be the um the most powerful rocket uh in the world by more than a factor of two. So, Falcon Heavy is will be on the order of 5 million pounds of thrust on lift-off, which is about 2/3 the size of a Saturn V. Oh, really?

Yeah, so it's That's the rocket that uh took the astronauts to the moon. Right, exactly. So, In fact, we're launching from the same from the same pad. From Very same pad. from the Apollo 11 pad. Wow. Yeah. That's amazing. So, you you're hoping to launch that Falcon Heavy by the end of this year, you said. Yeah, that's that's our aspiration. Is that Now, that's somewhat of a delay from when you first hoped to launch it, right?

Um yeah, um but uh the I mean, it's not like we had a lot of pressing customers who wanted us to launch it. Uh-huh. Okay. So, the uh in fact, the first launch will will not have any operational satellites. It'll be a demonstration launch. Mhm. Um and the first operational flights where where customers actually want us to launch it are next year. You know, whereas there's there's a lot of customers who want us to launch uh Falcon 9.

Um so, about about a quarter of our launch of our flights are for uh for NASA um but 3/4 are for uh commercial satellites like broadcasting communication satellites um or science missions for other countries.

Um and um and this is there's quite a quite a backlog and we had we had an issue with a rocket last year so that um put about a 6-month hold on our schedule so we're sort of backlogged on our launches and we're trying to get them out as as as quickly as we as we can um and you know, so you know, service our customers. The the uh so we're we're the launches will take place you know, every two to four weeks.

It's quite a quite a high launch cadence. That's a much faster cadence than NASA had, right? Um yeah, it's I mean, it's it will be more launches than any anything else in the world. Um so, more than Russia, more than Europe, more than well, more than China by now. Sure, certainly. to deliver customers. Satellites. Yeah, it's it's um there's a lot of broadcasting communication satellites that are going to geosynchronous orbit. Mhm.

And um and then there's we're we're we'll also be launching the new uh Iridium constellation. So, the Iridium's got a next generation uh constellation of uh satellites, I think 60 or 70 satellites, quite you know, decent-size satellites uh um that that'll be like many orders of magnitude improvement over the current Iridium system.

So, we'll be able to have global broadband um so that that'll be a whole bunch of launches and um yeah, and then and then next year we'll be flying um Dragon version two, which is the one that's capable of taking up to seven astronauts to the space station. Mhm.

Um in fact, Dragon two really is it's a propulsive lander as well um and it'll be the uh it's it's it's intended to carry astronauts to the space station but it's also capable of being a general science delivery platform to anywhere in the solar system. So, um So, where are you going with it? We're going to we're going to send one to Mars in 2018. Okay. Now, let's talk Wait. Wait. 2018, that's for sure. Yeah, a couple years. Couple years.

Now, will you be on that flight? No. You have talked about this. You said you don't want to you want to die on Mars, just not on landing, right? Is that correct? Well, I mean, I think if you're going to choose a place to die, then Mars is probably you know, not a bad choice. All right. Um But you're not ready it's not some sort of Martian death wish or something. But but yeah, I mean, if you're going to be born on Earth, die on Mars.

So, sending this up to Mars, 2018, right? Sending this up to Mars, 2018. When will someone like you get there from your plans? Sure. So, so the 2018 mission would be um our Drag- Dragon version two. Right. Um and that um I wouldn't recommend traveling to Mars in in that cuz I mean, it has the interior volume of a large SUV. Okay. Uh the the the trip the trip for Dragon would be on the order of six months. Mhm.

It's a long time to spend in an SUV, I think. Mhm. Um That's yes, can be done. Can be done but not not probably not ideal. Um and it also doesn't have the capability of getting back to Earth. Right. That's That seems more important than the space is. Hopefully. Yeah, we can put that in the in the fine print, Yeah. Sorry. We were rooting for It's It's like the side effects in a drug ad. By the way, cannot get back to Earth. Yeah.

Yeah, we saw the movie. We saw what happened. He got back. Yeah, yeah. Um So, it's good. I I I actually enjoyed the movie. Um So, he could have gotten back like that? That was that plausible? Well, I thought there was some, you know, connection. It was It was mostly It was like 80% scientifically correct. Um but they did connect a series of improbable events. Such as?

Well, I mean, I don't think you can sort of just uh take off from Mars um on an unguided rocket really and and then prick your finger on a space suit and navigate to a to a spaceship. Right? Yeah. Not Not Not impossible, just extremely unlikely. So, the sand storm in the movie if you're Matt Damon maybe. Maybe. You have some mad skills for sure. So so so when will people like yourself get there and I assume you'll be first in line for that?

Yeah so later this year in September at the IAC which is the big sort of world space conference industry space conference. I'm going to be presenting the the architecture for Mars colonization. Mhm. So I think what really matters is being able to transport large numbers of people and ultimately millions of tons of cargo to Mars.

And and that's what's necessary in order to create a self-sustaining not really self-sustaining but a growing city on Mars. So I'm curious have you been to space yet? No. Why? I mean you could just go up right for a little bit or not? I could I suppose. Yeah. Why haven't you? Like walked around or something? Yeah well yeah probably will. Will you do a moon test before you go to Mars?

Yeah I'm going to probably probably I don't know go to orbit in four or five years or something like that. But again space and orbit are very different things. But on the Mars thing would you send up two or three whether it's you or not.

I kind of would prefer if you tried it frankly but because it would be exciting but would you send up some people some people before you do this whole architecture for colonizing Mars just a handful of people to kind of see what I mean the the the basic game plan is like we're going to send um a mission to Mars with every Mars opportunity from 2018 onwards. So and they occur approximately every 26 months.

So um you know we we're establish we're establishing cargo flights to Mars that people that people can count on for for cargo. Um and it's like I said the the the Earth-Mars orbital rendezvous is only every 26 months. So there's one in 2018 there'll be another one in 2020. Um and I think if things go according to plan we should be able to uh we should be able to launch people probably in 2024 with arrival in 2025.

So Is that is that a more certain schedule than United Airlines? Well um I don't know. Uh There's certainly some uncertainties associated with that. Um So um let's um I'm going to share Anyway that's the game plan like approximately 2024 to do the first to to to to launch the first um of the Mars colonial transport system with I want to get back to what you said earlier about a multi a very big rocket. Okay. A very big bigger than Saturn V?

Twice as big or what? September. I'll tell you. Not going to say anything till September? Come on. Very big. Come on. Has to be very big. I how big is very big? So big. Um Do you think we should abandon the Earth at some No. No I No I think it's great. But you have said things Why would we abandon Earth? It's really nice here. You've said things about we may have to abandon the Earth so it's good to have a plan B. No I haven't.

Or No that was amazing. That's I think that's maybe maybe I don't know but it wasn't me. All right. Okay. Wasn't me like Jackie you All right. Um So let's move to things on this Earth. Let's move to Hyperloop Tesla other things. Let's talk about Tesla first. Where do you feel like the company is at at this point and there's been lots of activity in self-driving cars and autonomous autonomous.

How do you look at how everybody's jumped in Google Apple others? Um and all the car manufacturers. Um Yeah I mean there have been so many announcements of like autonomous EV startups. I'm waiting for my mom to announce one. Okay. Um it's like mom you too? Um I mean there's a lot. So um Yeah I mean in in in in the US alone there are there are four I think maybe five China-funded EV startups. At the billion dollar plus level like serious funding.

Um and there's a bunch of startups and then of course the you know the car industry as a whole seems to be moving in that direction. Volkswagen just I think announced a huge battery factory that they're going to build. Um And I think these are all good you know it's good it's good for the industry to be moving towards sustainable transport as as quickly as possible. Um we open sourced our patents to try to be helpful in that regard.

And um yeah so it's it's encouraging to see all this activity. Um From a Tesla standpoint you know we're just we want to take the set of actions that are uh likely to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy. Um so um scale up production as fast as we can so we accelerated plans for the Model 3 by two years.

Um and to so we we want to try to get to half a million cars in total in kind of the 2018 timeframe which is an aggressive schedule but I think achievable. Um and and then maybe a million cars a year by 2020. Um and um you know I I can see a I I think a pretty clear path to get there. Uh autonomy is obviously extremely important. Uh people are going to want want autonomy. It's going to be odd to have a car without autonomy in the future.

Um But um yeah so that I think that's So what what what do you How do you look at How do you look at the all these efforts? Not your mother but Yeah my mom's yeah she's She's not going to do it. She may do a rocket situation but um how do you look at each of them? Let's go through them. What Google's doing? How do you assess what they're doing when you're looking at it cuz they'll be competitors at some point.

These are all Um eventual competitors. Well you know what I think what what Google's I mean Google's done a great job of showing the potential of autonomous transport. Um but they're they're not a they're not a car company so they would potentially you know license their technology to other car companies and I think they announced something with Fiat. Um and so I I wouldn't say you know Google's a competitor because they're not a car company.

They We would compete with somebody perhaps that they license technology to but not to them directly. Right. Um Apple? Uh Yeah that that'll be more direct. That'll be more direct? Yeah. You can tell that by the hiring pattern and that kind of stuff. So what do you Okay so they're going to be more direct. How do you assess it?

Um I mean I I say like you know I I think it's great that they're doing this and um I um you know I hope they I hope it works out. What's What's the timeframe for them do you think? Um I don't know I mean um I I think they should have embarked upon this project sooner actually.

Uh but that uh um but I don't know I don't know when they I mean they have they don't they don't share with me the details of their production plans but um I I I I don't think it's going to be I don't think they'll be in volume production sooner than maybe 2020. That'll be like the soonest. And that's Is that too late?

When you say they should have embarked sooner is is that because 2020 will be too late to stop you or beat you or compete with you or No it's just like it's a missed opportunity. It's just a that they it's a it's um It'll be over by 2020? I wouldn't say that. It's It's just like it's it's it's a couple of years. I think they'll they'll probably make a good car and probably be successful.

The car industry is very big so it's not as though there's um you know one company to the exclusion of others. Um I mean there's like a dozen car companies in the world of of of significance. So uh and the the most that any company has is approximately 10% market share. So it's it's not like um you know somebody comes up with a car and they're suddenly like they kill everyone else. It's not not that way.

Um and and the sheer scale of automotive manufacturing is is is just it's hard to appreciate until you see the plants. I mean that they're gigantic like the industrial Yeah I mean the the the the sheer size of the industrial infrastructure is is staggering. Not just the assembly plant but everything else that goes Yeah the supply chain exactly the supply chain is just a little tip of the iceberg really.

The supply chain is literally tip of the iceberg. The the supply chain is um you know once you go to tier two tier three tier four suppliers that's uh probably an order of magnitude more uh So okay so you think Google will not be a competitor Apple probably will be a direct competitor. Yeah yeah sure. What about the car companies? The the I think they're all they're all going to be competitors. Yeah sure.

Who do you see out there that has done a nice job so far? Mercedes or GM of of what? Of a competitive car. incumbents. Potentially competitive car, I guess. I mean I don't think anyone's any of the car companies as far as I've made a really great electric car. I mean, you tell me if I'm if you disagree, but I don't think yet that any of them have made a great electric car. Okay.

And they, you know, presumably will continue to improve on what they've done so far and and then at some point they may make a car that's that's a you know, but that's a great car, but not they haven't done that yet. Can I ask you about batteries for a second? Yeah, sure. So you're building this gigafactory, right? You've got it's built. It's Well, it's not completely built. Okay, but it part of it's up and running. A chunk of it is built, yeah.

Part of it is up and running. gigantic thing. It's like when the gigafactory is done, it'll be the largest footprint building of any kind in the world. Of any kind, not just factories, it's literally of any What is this? The largest rocket, the largest building. I mean, every Well, I mean, I think this it's not scale for scale's sake.

It's just like if you say, "Well, we want to accomplish these goals, then um then you kind of have to be make a big thing." Okay. Um You've got this big thing. It's this big giant building. Yeah. It's going to make batteries. The batteries it's going to make are lithium to have an opening. Well, it's not technically an opening party since it's been operating for a little while, but we're going to have a party soon. You guys maybe want to come.

We can come. Yeah, sure. We'll come to the battery party. But they can't come. What I was saying this is like Right? Just this This is crazy. No. This is like an alien dreadnought. It's really nutty. I love a battery party, but Right. Well, but but but But talk about where it's going. Are these lithium ion batteries? Yeah, sure. So they're the same batteries that's in our phone? No. Explain. Please explain.

Yes, so so lithium Have you made a a battery breakthrough is something I'm interested in. Yeah, I mean, generally the I mean, there's there's so much nonsense out there about batteries. Like about you can believe about 1% of what you read. Um on a you know, maybe. Um Uh Lithium ion covers a very broad range of technologies.

Um and you can have an enormous difference in the power density and the energy density and the cycle life um between one chemistry and another. They can be really enormously different. Um So Uh what you really actually want to ask is what is the cathode and what is the anode? Right. Um So in our case That's right. Um I just put it in the The the lithium is actually 2% of the cell mass. So so like it's like the salt in the salad.

It's it's a very small um amount of the cell mass and a very small amount of the cost. Um But it sounds like it's big because it's called lithium ion, but it it really like our battery should be called nickel graphite cuz it's mostly nickel and graphite. Okay, and Um it's nickel cobalt aluminum But battery little things in graphite with a silicon oxide layer.

Battery efficiency or power you know, the power that you can store in a certain uh mass seems to be move very slowly, at least compared to you know, we're used to Moore's law pushing uh integrated circuits faster. Batteries kind of are always in our consumer devices always lagging behind. In your you've built this giant thing, the biggest building in the world that's ever seen.

not fully built, but yes, it's Your building a A pretty big chunk of it is built, so yeah. Uh to make batteries. Your whole business depends on batteries in these cars. Have you figured out a way to do some significant uh increase in the yield of energy from a given amount of of space in the battery? Well Yeah, I mean, the the the energy density is increasing sort of maybe on the order of like 5-ish percent per year.

Um And it doesn't sound like much, but you add that up over a number of years with compound interest, it ends up being quite quite a significant number. Um and a lot of people sort of think that, "Oh, well, we just sort of cobbled together some um laptop batteries and somehow made a great car." If it If it was that easy, then I think we would have quite a few competitors who did the same thing.

But but it's it's it's really quite quite a lot harder than that. Um the it is a cylindrical form form factor, but the internals of the battery are quite different from what you'd find in uh in a laptop. Um And uh and and and it will be increasingly different with the what's built at the gigafactory, which is highly optimized for automotive.

Um And um and with has improved energy density, but but mostly it's not the energy density that's the issue cuz you know, you can buy if you buy a Model S today um the range is um around 300 miles. Um And and yeah, that's quite a lot. Um So it's pretty rare that people really need to go more than 300 miles at a time without stopping. Right. um So I don't think we really have a range issue. And we could make a 400-mile range car today.

Like that wouldn't be too big of a deal. Um The What What really matters is decreasing the cost uh per unit of energy of the battery packs so that you can make the car affordable. That's actually the the the important thing. Um So there's and there's really two main main dimensions along which uh cost optimization and making something available to mass market can be achieved. One is design iteration, going through multiple versions of something.

And then the other is economies of scale. Um and you kind of need both of those those things in order to make a compelling mass market uh product. And you look at like cell phones and how many design iterations have we gone through with cell phones? Um and and then and and and what and look at the scale at which they're they're made is enormous. Uh and that's what enables everyone to have a supercomputer in their pocket.

Um So speaking of that, the sales. When you're talking about the sales, you have booked how many orders for It's on the order of 400,000. 400,000. So obviously it's consumer interest in a promise. A lot of it around you, around the idea of you and Tesla and the excitement. Yeah, it's it's quite surprising, actually. I mean, I the um cuz we didn't do any advertising or there was no guerrilla marketing or anything.

It was just basically like, "Yeah, we're going to have this webcast." There was only there were only about a thousand people in the audience. Um and um it really caught us by surprise. But I think you know, when you have a product that really resonates with with customers, the word of mouth uh grows like wildfire. And that seems to be what it Yeah, but it's a little bit.

I mean, honestly, in some groups of especially men in Silicon Valley, if you show up and read like a label of a peanut jar, they'd be thrilled with the situation. So I mean, you a lot of this does base around you. Like the idea of you and the excitement around this exciting entrepreneur. Is that Is that enough to get it to to to this massive company you've been hoping to?

The idea of this is the Elon promise or it's the Well, I I think actually it's not so much I mean, I sort of um um I I mean, I'm not sure. I I think I deserve less credit than that, actually. The the I What What Tesla's done with a phenomenal team is like 15,000 people at the company. Um worked super hard to create compelling products, to create great cars. Um and we started off with the roadster and then the Model S.

The Model S was rated, you know, by Consumer Reports as the best car ever. Um Got the Model X, which you know, had some has had some teething issues, but um I think it's now at the point where it's it's really starting to I think it's really I think quite sublime at this point.

Um And uh and and so people look at that and say, "Okay, well, if Tesla's made these cars, then probably the next car they make is going to be you know, the less expensive one. also a great car. And Um yeah, but you know, so it'll be a great car, but it'll be affordable. And it's like, "Great. Okay, that sounds like something I want." Um So this car, this next car, the price is the It's starting at 35,000. Okay, affordable.

Okay, when is the When do you get to the When do you get to the When do you get to the really affordable, the way down much lower than that? Yeah, I mean, it's more important that the 35,000, particularly when you're factoring in the lower cost of electricity versus gasoline and that the maintenance cost is much less. You don't have to have oil changes.

You never need to replace your brakes because the the car uses regenerative braking, so the brakes last as long as the car do at the car does. Um it's basically you just need to replace the tires. Like that's about about all. Um So the operational cost of the car is much lower fundamentally than than a gasoline car.

And and so um And and I think I think the the the average price for cars for gasoline cars is around 30, 32, something like that, yeah. Uh I mean, there are starting prices that are lower, but but when people pick pick options, I believe it's in the around 32 or so in the US. So we're pretty close to the that that that But that's your base price, right? I mean, the Yeah, but it's going to be a great car. ASP for the car.

No, but it's going to be a great car even at 35. So it's like even if you order nothing no options at all, it'll be great. But you're at but you're likely to have a mix where the average car that you actually sell sells for a little more than that. Yes, probably it's probably going to be Yeah, it's probably going to be some higher number.

Um But it's really important to emphasize like the the 35 if if somebody orders the 35,000 car, they'll be very happy. Like it's not like you need to order a bunch of options in order without which the car is is, you know, not not good. That car will have autonomous for 35? Um I have a uh I'm going to do another of Tesla van maybe at the end of the year. Um, talk more about that. And say Well, so you could start here.

Um, it would be real big news if I start here. Um We don't mind that. Let me just say that we're going to do the obvious thing. Okay. Got it. It's really obvious. So cup So So cup holders good. Okay. Um So brilliant brilliant But those things are nuanced. All right, absolutely. Um, let's talk about two more things. I want to talk about AI cuz we've been talking about it a lot here.

Um, which I want to get it clear what your thoughts are because it's mostly Elon's scared of robots. I mean, that kind of thing or what How do you I'm just scared of robots. Um Or artificial intelligence. Can you like clarify exactly what the issue you have now? And and you deserve the background. We've been talking to uh Jeff Bezos, Sundar Pichai. Uh, we talked to Mark Fields from Ford about it. Um it's Microsoft for Uh yeah, the Facebook folks.

Um, there certainly seems to be uh in the I in the tech companies a big tremendous new drive or interest to believing they will be all competing for intelligent assistants and good. It'll make your life better Make your life better. Siri is going to suddenly get smart. Microsoft's one is going to get smart. And Google is going to cream them all. a happy version of this is going to Sometimes technology hurts you, but not as much as it helps you.

That's really Yeah. So that's there's been a lot of conversation here about that. Um and yet and you've staked out a slightly different position. So can you talk about that? Well, I mean, I think my sort of full position would require quite a long explanation. Um I mean, I I am concerned about um certain directions that AI could take that would be uh not good for the future.

That the I mean, it I I I think it'd be fair to say that like not all AI futures are benign. Not not all. Okay. Um And and so if you have something if if if there's if we create some digital superintelligence that exceeds us in every way by a lot, um it's very important that that be benign. Um And um and so actually with with the with a few others um I created uh Open AI. Uh which is uh an AI uh It's a nonprofit actually.

It's so so there's there's no I think the governance structure here is important. Um, so you want to make sure that there was not some fiduciary duty to uh generate um you know, profit or proof of the AI technology that's developed. Um So uh so we created this uh a 501c3 um but it but I think it's it's like quite different from I mean, like a lot of sort of 501c3s are, you know, they have they don't have a high sense of urgency.

Um like they're they're not like um you know, they're not really sort of ex developing technology at at at a fast pace, but Open AI is. Uh so Open AI has a very high sense of urgency and the talent I think that the people that have joined are are really really amazing. Um um and um and the intent with Open AI is to democratize AI power. Um And there's a quote that I love from uh Lord Acton.

He was the guy that came up with power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Um which is that uh freedom consists of the distribution of power and despotism in its concentration. And so I think it's important if we have this incredible power of AI that it not be concentrated in the hands of a few and potentially lead to a world that we don't want. And what world is that?

What is What do you see foresee that when you say It's difficult I mean, it's called the singularity cuz it's it's difficult to predict. Um what exactly what future that might be except um I don't know a lot of people who love the idea of living under a despot. Mhm. Um you know, I don't think people generally choose to live in a democracy over a dictatorship. Mhm. And the despot would be the computer? Well, the people controlling the computer.

Mhm. And do you worry specifically about any of these companies I mentioned who've all seemed to now kind of be pivoting toward this as the battleground in the next 10 years? I won't name a name, but there is only one. There's only one you're worried about. And they're not preoccupied with making a car that will compete with you, I assume. There's only one. And what tell tell me This is an interesting competing It's not about competing.

It's Like like this is sort of like who like what would be the point of competing for you know mutual destruction. It's like there's no It's not about competing. It's really just about um trying to increase the probability that the future will be good. That's all. Mhm. So the the goal of of Open AI is really just to take the set of actions that are most likely to improve the positive futures.

Like if you can think of like the future as a set of of probability streams that that that branch out and then converge collapse down to a particular event and then branch out again. And uh there's a certain set of probability associated with the future being positive and different type flavors of that. And uh at Open AI we want to try to get do do whatever we can to guide to to increase the probability of of the good futures happening.

I think that's that's really what we're trying to do there. worry that by making this open some bad actors may use some of what has been developed to do bad stuff uh with the power of the AI? Yeah, I mean, that that is certainly the the the I mean, a good rebuttal to that. Um however, I think if AI power is widely distributed um then and there is not uh say one entity that has some super AI that is a million times smarter than anything else.

Uh you know, if it if instead the AI power is broadly distributed and to the degree that we can link uh AI power to um each individual's will. Um so like you you know, you would have your AI agent and you would like everyone would have their sort of AI agent. And then if somebody did try to do something really terrible, well, then uh the collective will of others could overcome that bad actor.

Um which you can't do if if there's one AI that's you know, a million times better than everything else. and it's proprietary. And it's yeah, it's either has its own will or more likely at least in the beginning is controlled by you know, some small set of people. So um I think that's that's really the the risk. I mean um you know, there's always there's always been these arguments like what's the what's the best form of government?

Um you know, big fan of I think it was Churchill like, you know, democracy is the the worst form of government except for all the others. Right. Um So speaking of that Yeah. this election. You are from Oh, no. No, no, no. Yes, yes, yes. How does that strike you what's happening now? You're you you come to this country or naturalized citizen?

Uh you know, I think I'm glad that the framers of the Constitution saw fit to ensure that the president uh was someone who um was captain of a large ship with a small rudder. Okay. And There's a limit to how much harm any given president Are you sure about that? Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So you're not worried about Are you backing in either of the candidates at this point? stay out of this situation.

Because I don't think this is the finest moment in our democracy. Well, given that it's not the finest moment in our democracy, do you think the best thing is to stay out or We'll see. get in I'm not sure what I what I can do to I mean worst. I don't know how much how much influence I could have as as one person on the outcome. Um so um I mean, if I think I could make a difference, I would probably do something.

Um but um like I said, I think I'm just glad that that the pre you know, being the US president is like being captain of a large ship with a small rudder. Mhm. And so like there's just a limit to how much good or bad a president can can can actually do. I mean, obviously if if a president could make the economy great that and there was like a button he could press, they'd be pressing that button at the speed of light. Mhm.

Um So you know, that they they but they they can't. So I can't they can't just magically make the economy good. Um no president wants the economy bad ever. Um but they you know, like there's just a limit to to how much they can do. Um and um yeah. I guess there is the nuclear thing which is Yeah, the nuclear I guess there is the nuclear thing. Yeah, but I I I don't know.

I think you would I think I think I don't think we would like just arbitrarily launch nuclear missiles. Yeah. One would hope. President can do that. Uh I don't think so. Arbitrarily. I mean, I think that He's No, he's the commander-in-chief. but I don't I still I still don't I still don't think that means you can just launch nuclear missiles whenever you want. All right. Yeah.

Um I I think Congress would be like quite upset about that and um They might not be consulted. Yeah, but I think I think like the military would be like, "Yeah, we really think Congress should be consulted on that before you launch a Yeah, that that might happen. preemptive nuclear strike. Are you willing that you're basing your faith in that though?

I'm quite confident that the military would not just you know, randomly agree to launching nuclear missiles at somebody. Well, that's calming. Um so um we're going to put up just very quickly with and on Hyperloop. You've been involved with it. Your level of involvement is what at this point? Just Yeah, and I know it's a it's a bit it's a bit confusing cuz um I am You talked about it when you were here last time.

Yeah, um I I actually came up with the idea um I came up with an initial idea which which turned out to be wrong and wouldn't work um several years ago and and then um but I sort of shot my mouth off and and said I like have an idea that would work and turned out that it didn't work but I with a lot of iteration was able to come up with something that where the physics hangs together.

Um and then published the paper and just said like look anyone who wants to do this is great. Go you know, be my guest. Cuz I'm I sort of have a plate full running Tesla and SpaceX. Yeah, yeah. And so I think it'd be great. I mean I I think it'd be great to have any interesting new transport solutions. Um anything that gets people to their destination um in a way that's safer, costs less, is more convenient. Um that'd be great.

I mean and so I think probably the most valuable thing that the Hyperloop paper that I published um uh has done is is to spur thinking in terms of new transportation systems. So it's not just oh let's you know, have a a fast train. Okay, that's not even as fast as what Japan did in the '80s. Like okay, why would I don't see what the point of that is, you know.

Like we should really be trying to think of some something that's um I think particularly in California like we should be like saying, "Hey, what is the best Let's invent something new that's way better than anything else. Do you want to shoot your mouth off about that?

Um well um you know, I so so I I mean I'm not an investor in any of the companies uh that that are working on it and I've tried to be neutral cuz I'm like trying to trying not to favor one company over another. Uh but just to encourage anyone that is interested to say like you know, the try try to give them moral support, you know. Um And I I hope they succeed.

Um the only thing that um I am doing on Hyperloop front is like we're we're holding a student competition and the student competition is really just um aimed towards encouraging uh students to think about exciting new transport methods. Um and it's totally cool if they want to like do some architecture that's different from uh what I proposed in Hyperloop.

In fact, the the winning team at the student competition that we held earlier this year used a different um suspension mechanism uh than what I proposed which is I you know, I I proposed using essentially taking taking the uh air that eventually is that builds up on the nose from the compressor and and flowing that through um air skis. Um So that you simultaneously remove the drag from the nose and provide a a a means of suspending the the pod.

Um and and that's also something that that works well um even at uh super supersonic velocities. You can go it's been demonstrated up to Mach 1. 1 in terms of using air bearings as But they use something different. Uh uh yeah, basically electromagnetic suspension.

Um and and like the the the reason I didn't suggest um uh um sort of any any kind of um um magnetic suspension um is that it's very important that the cost of the of the tube be be minimized. So you really want because the the the pod is cheap, the tube is expensive. Um so if you if you want to go say 400 miles and you and and two in two directions, so you've got 800 miles of tube.

The the the critical uh economic optimization parameter is the cost of the tube. So you want that tube to be as low cost as possible. Um and so if you if you do anything that that um requires um action on the tube side, it's going to make that tube much more expensive. Um so if you use air bearings, it doesn't change like that's real cheap. Um and um yeah, so Do you think this is going to happen?

Yeah, I think something like that I think something will happen in the future. Um You know, it's I think I think if if if the companies that are that are trying that are trying to make it happen now, if if for whatever reason that that doesn't work out, um then you know, I think I I'll you know, I'll I might I might do something myself in the future.

I I don't want to do something I don't want to front I don't want to sort of front run them, you know, and say here's this free idea and then meanwhile I go and do it myself, you know, that wouldn't be nice. So um so so but if I if they if they if they if if much companies don't try and it doesn't work out then then I think I think um I think I'll try to just at least do a demonstration system, you know. Okay, last question.

Do you think tech has gotten more serious? Do you How do you look at the tech landscape as someone who's you know, well known you probably qualify as a visionary. Um the concept What What do you imagine we are right now in the tech space and then we'll get to questions from the audience. I think there's a lot of innovation happening in in many different areas. Um The advancements in AI are I think are quite quite astonishing.

Um the advancements in genetics are amazing. Um The So I I think that there is a lot of innovation going on. Um I think that there's probably a few too many talented entrepreneurs in kind of the internet space and and I think their talent actually would be better served in some other industries. Um But I do think I mean I don't think we're like facing some sort of low innovation period or anything like that.

I think there's a lot of innovation going on. They need to move to other Uh I just think there's like if you had some ideal distribution there probably would be fewer like there's just a lot of talent focused on the internet and probably some of that talent um uh would um be be be better to have some of that talent in other industries. Um that's about all but but there's tremendous amount of innovation that that's happening.

Um It's something that I think is is going to be quite important. Um And and it's there's not I don't know of a company that's working on it seriously is um is a neural lace. Um so you know, going going back to the AI situation. Um this is quite important. Uh quite important debate. Like the if you assume any rate of advancement in AI, um we will be left behind by a lot.

Um and so then we could be in like you know, a benign situation but the even the benign situation if you have some you know, if you have ultra intelligent AI, um we would be you know, so so far below them in intelligence that it would be would be like you know, a pet basically. Cat, that's what I was thinking. Like a pet, a cat, a cat, like a house cat. Yeah, we'd be like a house cat.

Um and um yeah, so that's that's the end of the world, you know. Just sort of pets. Seen the movie, it could be. It could be, could be. Um the Yeah, so that but that honestly that would that would be a benign scenario. Um and So house cat is okay? I mean I don't love the idea of being a house cat. Okay. But but that So what's the solution?

Yeah, so I think the um I I think I think it I think it's to essentially I think one of the solutions the solution that seems maybe the best one is to have an AI layer. Um if you think of like you've got your limbic system, um your cortex and then um a digital layer, a sort of a third layer above the cortex um that um could work work well and symbiotically with with you.

I mean just as your cortex works symbiotically with your limbic system, your sort of a third digital layer could work symbiotically with the rest. This is something that's in surgically inserted or bred into the species or what? The the fundamental limitation is input-output. So uh we we already have uh we we're already a cyborg.

Um it's just that I mean you have a digital version of yourself or or partial version of yourself online in the form of your emails and your social media and all the things that you do. Um And and you have basically superpowers in in that with your computer and your phone and and the applications that are there. Um you have more power than the president of the United States had 20 years ago. You can answer any question.

Uh you can video conference with anyone um Right. anywhere. You can send a message to millions of people instantly. Um you know, you just do incredible things and um but the constraint is is input out output. So, we're we're IO bound. Um particularly output bound. I mean, like the your output level is so low. It's like the particularly on a phone like your two thumbs are sort of tapping away. Um this is ridiculously slow.

Um our input is much better cuz we have a high bandwidth visual interface with the brain. Like our eyes take in a lot of a lot of data. Um so, there's many orders of magnitude difference between um input and output. Um So, mostly um effectively merging in a symbiotic way with uh digital intelligence revolves around eliminating the IO constraint. Um so, it's with some sort of direct cortical interface. Um And you called it a neural Neural lace.

Neural lace. Yeah. Um It's totally not Google Glass, right? No. I'm talking about something which wear it or No. I mean, it would be uh I mean, I mean, there are a few ways to approach this, but some sort of interface directly with your cortical neurons particularly. But doesn't that imply surgical insertion? Not necessarily. You could go through the veins and arteries cuz that that provides a a complete uh roadway to um all of your neurons.

Your neurons are very heavy users of energy, so they need high blood flow. So, you automatically with your veins and arteries have um a road network to your neurons. Still search some kind of surgery, right?

Um yes, but you could insert something, you know, basically you know, into the jugular and and have It gets my car, but really easy and It It doesn't involve It doesn't It doesn't involve, you know, like chopping your your your skull open or anything like that. Yeah. And plus you're not a house cat anymore, right? Not a house cat. So, Right.

um I mean, essentially if if we can figure out how to establish a high bandwidth neural interface with ourselves. with with your digital self effectively. Um then uh then you're no longer a house cat. You know. All right. On that note. Now, on that Uh well, well, I just one closing thing. it's probably the best outcome. That's Are you Are you Are you interested you interested in exploring this possibility that you have just laid got to do it.

I'm not saying that I will, but I'm somebody's got to do it. I mean, I I I I mean, I So, somebody should do it. And I mean, if somebody doesn't do it, then I then I think I should probably do it, but uh And and the goal of this is to prevent there being an external uh AI, particularly one controlled by a small group of people that could Yeah.

be so much more powerful and intelligent than we are that the house cat would be godlike in its capabilities. Yeah. Well, this has been really cheerful. Thank you. Yeah. But But if we can establish about asteroids at the beginning of this. I mean, ast- asteroids are a low probability existential threat um on the time scale that's relevant to us. Okay. Okay. Um This is different. This requires urgency. So, what do you do for fun?

Yes, this is much more do you do for for fun fun? What do you do? Anything? I play video games with my kids. All right. That sounds good. Let's get some questions for Elon. Elon the house cat. I watch movies, you know, that kind of thing. Normal things. Why don't we start over here? Yeah, hi. I I think this last question by uh Carl just just did that.

Uh I want to know how do you uh live through the stress that kind of conversations we just heard that you went through and um kind of ambitions that you carry and then how do you adjust to the everyday work-life balance etc. things that in your life. So, a little bit of your personal side, actually. You're very busy. How does that work? Yeah, I mean, um I am sort of in kind of work triage mode um a lot of the time. So, I don't know.

It seems to be as long as there's not like a crisis simultaneously at SpaceX and Tesla, it's okay. Um but you know, companies are I mean, the situation in any given company, particularly when, you know, if if if it's sort of growing fast and sort of quasi startup, it's it's somewhat sinusoidal. So, that I mean, it's okay if if you don't if the if the waves don't crest together. You know, um when that does happen, it then that's a huge strain.

Um But right now, things are like, you know, motoring along okay. Um and I have like the context loaded for both companies. I can look sort of see a path to a good outcome. So, I feel pretty good right now. Uh but there've been super stressful times in the past. Um and uh and then, you know, and then I I always try to reserve time for my kids cuz I love hanging out with them. Like I mean, kids are really great.

I mean, they're like the 99% um of the time they they they they make you happier. They're kids are awesome, you know. Yeah. Um Then there's that 1%. 1% you know, like yeah, 1%. But But like it's it's of anything in my life, I would say kids by far make me the happiest. I mean, I don't know if you know, I agree. Yeah. It's great. I agree. Yeah.

At this Um so so I hang out with them like so like now the like things like a lot of times kids are kind of in their own world, so you don't need to like they don't want to like talk to their dad for hours on end generally. I've noticed that. Yeah. Um so like um so I can be in the same room with them. They can talk to me from time to time, but I you know, I can get you know, some emails done. Just get some work done.

And then whenever they want to talk to me, they can. Um and then uh we uh we try to do things like um you know, travel places and uh like I said, we we play video games together or uh um actually on Monday, we went to the new Harry Potter land um at Universal. It was quite fun. Yeah. So, I think that Somebody from Universal is clapping. Yeah. I mean, whoever was in charge of Harry Potter land did a great job. It's really good. is good.

I highly recommend it. Yeah. The butter beer is amazing. Yeah, I was just saying the butter The butter beer is amazing. Yeah. Okay. Over here. Hi. Uh my name is Evan Burns and the founder of Odyssey and I hope in to the future to be in something the space industry. And my curiosity is you've talked about SpaceX getting in many different businesses, for example, um global Wi-Fi through launching many satellites.

Um do you hope SpaceX becomes a platform for others to launch businesses or you see SpaceX being a business that launches many business lines? Um well, I mean, the general or strategy of SpaceX is to like we we clearly need a lot of money in order to develop the transport system to establish a city on Mars.

Um So, you know, we're we're like kind of gathering revenue uh like ear- earth-based revenue that's um we're we're we're we're we're we're trying to maximize earth other earth revenue. Well, right now it's only earth. So, we're going to maximize earth revenue as it relates to space, you know, as it relates to rockets and spacecraft.

So, um but I think like what assuming SpaceX is able to transport large numbers of people and and goods to Mars, it will be an enormous enabler for entrepreneurial activity on Mars. Um because there's going to be so much to do. Um you know, everything from creating like the first iron ore refinery to the first pizza joint to um you know, something that doesn't even exist on earth.

Um you know, it's kind of like when the Union Pacific uh crossed crossed, you know, and like ev- everyone thought Union Pacific, what a stupid idea. You know, like there's nobody living in in California. Well, okay. Now, there's quite a lot of people living in California. Um so so just uh having a You need the transport link.

Um and so what SpaceX is trying to do is is establish a transport link um and then try to create a fertile environment for entrepreneurs on Mars uh to flourish. Um and and I think that will be an amazing um expansion of entrepreneurial would it take to deliver a pizza from Mars? Ha. Well, it's going to be a little cold if it But I mean, we we we can certainly see a way to get to Mars in under three months.

Um and I think ultimately you'll be able to get to Mars in under a month. It does get exponentially difficult as you reduce the time. Um but um but you know, three three months is a is a way to think of it. Um and I think that's probably you know, that's that's really where where SpaceX will I think create a a great environment for entrepreneurial potential. Thanks. Nilay. I hope Domino's does not get to Mars. Please don't let it.

Have a special special Mars pizza. going to be I'm assuming you're going to be king of Mars. Nilay. Yeah. Uh uh so, you're obviously very ambitious. Um that's led to some really ambitious deadlines have been missed. So, Falcon Heavy was originally 2012. Um the Model X was a little bit delayed. The Model 3 The Model X was delayed. The Model 3 seems to be stretching. But the Model 3 in particular is a consumer product.

You're taking money from people against a really aggressive production schedule and a huge amount of orders. What are you going to do to hit your deadlines on that because it's real consumers this time in a big class of people? Sure. Um the uh I I think the the biggest thing is just designing the car for um for for manufacturing. So, in the case of Model S, like the Model S was the first time we'd really built a car, um a whole car.

Like with the Roadster, Lotus did the body and chassis, we did the powertrain, and we did the sort of final installation of the powertrain to the to the chassis, but the Model S was the first time we made a car. So, we're just trying to make a a great car, um and but we had no idea like what it meant to design something to be manufacturable.

So, the Model S is super hard to make, and then the Model X is built off of the Model S platform, except it's got a bunch of other wiz-bang technologies that make it even harder to build.

So, um and uh you know, so um like that I mean, definitely we want to do the opposite of what we did with the with the X, um which is make something that is is going to be a lot simpler, um but still a car that people will love, um and where every design decision is factoring in the manufacturability.

Uh in fact, and making sure that when we design something, um that you can manufacture it at volume at an affordable price in the schedule that we're that we're on the schedule that we're that we're targeting. Um One of the things that makes a car very difficult, particularly if it's a new car, uh is is that it's an integrated product with several thousand unique components.

Um so, we are somewhat at the mercy of whatever the slowest component is, whatever basically I mean, if you say go to tier two and three suppliers, they end up being several thousand suppliers. So, so things move as fast as the least lucky and least competent supplier. Um you know, but but just and you can think of like like any natural disaster you care to name, all of those things have happened to our suppliers.

Their factory has burnt down, there's been an earthquake, there's been a you know, tsunami, there's been uh massive hail, uh there's been a tornado, uh the ship sank, uh there was a shootout at the Mexican border, um no kidding. Um that that delayed trunk carpet at one point. Well, like and we couldn't get and like the and like the border patrol wouldn't give us the truck cuz it had a bullet holes in it. Um We just wanted our trunk carpet.

Um like it's pretty safe. There's like no cocaine or anything. It's just a good. Um but you know, that shut down the production line as an example for several days. Um so, so there's that's the biggest issue is like the supply chain stuff is really tricky. Um We're trying to anticipate as much of that as possible, um increase our optionality so that there's more internal capability at Tesla.

Not that we want to do things internally, but if um if a supplier is unable and unwilling to uh deliver the part, we can quickly make that internally. Um So, I think the whole company is is geared geared geared for that, um and um I mean, right now it looks like, you know, we should be able to do that.

Uh we expect to I mean, we we almost all of the Model 3 design is done, um and we're aiming for pencils down basically uh about 6 weeks, complete pencils down. Um And um and we're tabling all, you know, like if there are ideas for future cool things, we'll we'll have it in version two, version three, you know, in future years type of thing. So, um overall, I feel feel pretty good about it.

Um And um our supplier um particularly our major supplier partners have been um very supportive and are are on board. Um But um you know, uh I mean, one thing I I should say is like the like when when I when I sort of cite a schedule, it is actually the schedule I think is true. It's it's not some fake schedule that I don't think is true. Um So, I mean, uh you know, it's never until you know, I it's um maybe delusional.

That is entirely you know, possible. Maybe it's happened from time to time. Um but it's it's it's never um you know, some knowingly fake deadline ever. So, is there an event in 6 weeks where you're going to announce autonomous driving is included in the pencils down plan for the Model 3? We're We're not expecting any event in 6 weeks. All right. Uh Josh. Hi. Um so, I have a this is a kind of a weird question.

I feel like you would be the guy with the right answer for it. There's a um sort of a philosophic concept that a sufficiently advanced civilization would be able to create uh So, simulation. Yeah. Maybe you've answered this before. A simulation. simulation discussions, it's crazy. Okay.

Um So, cuz cuz In fact, it it got to the point where basically every conversation was was the AI AI/simulation conversation, um and my brother and I finally agreed that um we would ban such conversations if we're ever in a hot tub. That was like Yeah, cuz that really kills the magic. So, So, so the idea is, right, any sufficiently advanced civilization would create could create a simulation that's like our existence.

And so, the theory follows that may maybe we're in the simulation. Have you thought about this? A lot. Are we Are we Even in hot tub. So much so it had to be banned from a hot tub. Okay. It's not the sexiest conversation. Are we in Are we in? Um The the the I mean, I think here's in my view, like the the the strongest argument for the for us being in a simulation, probably being in a simulation, I think it's the following.

Um That that 40 called 40 40 years ago, we had Pong, like two rectangles and a dot. That was what games were. Um now, 40 years later, we have photorealistic 3D simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously, and it's getting better every year. And soon we'll have you know, virtual reality, augmented reality. Um If you assume any rate of improvement at all, um then the games will become indistinguishable from reality.

Just in indistinguishable. Um even if that rate of advancement drops by a thousand from what it is right now, um then you just say, "Okay, well, we'll let's imagine it's a 10,000 years in the future." Uh which is nothing in the evolutionary scale.

Um so, um So, so given that we're clearly on a trajectory to have games that are indistinguishable from reality, and those games could be played on any set up box or on a PC or whatever, and they would probably be you know, billions of such uh you know, computers or set up boxes. It would seem to follow that the odds that we're in base reality is one in billions. Tell me what's wrong with that argument. Is the answer yes?

The argument is probably I just like is there Is there a flaw in that argument? someone but someone sure what the error in All right, no, no. The argument makes sense. So, the assumption then is that some we beat us to it. And this is a game. No, no. There's a one in billions chance that this is base reality. Oh, okay. What do you think? Well, I think it's one in billions. Okay.

I mean, this that seems to be like clearly what the you know, what the what it what it suggests. And and actually, I mean, ideally we should hope that that's true because otherwise, if if civilization stops advancing, then that may be due to some cataclysmic event that erases civilization. So, maybe we should be hopeful that this is a simulation cuz otherwise Cuz they could reboot it.

Well, otherwise ei- either we're going to create simulations that are indistinguishable indistinguishable from reality or civilization will cease to exist. Those are the two options. I like those odds. Okay. All right. We're going to it's it's unlikely to go into some like, you know, multi-million year stasis. So, it's either going to increase or decrease. Hi, I'm Jeetu Patel from Box. Uh two-part question for you.

One is um if you think about fully autonomous vehicles, um which have passed through regulatory approvals, have passed through in-city driving in traffic conditions, how far do you think from a time frame perspective we are for that hap- that becoming reality?

And number two would be the second part of that question is how far before how long before you think it's either illegal or extremely pro- prohibitively expensive for humans to drive on the road? Well, I I mean, I think I mean, I really would consider autonomous driving to be basically a solved problem. Um Even in cities like Beijing and Yeah. Yeah.

Actually, there's the There's really only one um area where it's like a little dodgy, and that's basically if you're at roughly the 30 30 to 40 mph um in in urban environments, which is that's difficult to achieve in Beijing. Um It's like heavy traffic. Uh in in in in dense traffic situations, uh autonomy is really easy um cuz you can just maintain a set distance from various cars. It's actually quite quite easy.

Um you're un- very unlikely to drive to run anyone over cuz you're just not moving fast enough, and you can brake in time. Um on highways, particularly highways that are um that that are barriers so that you you don't have pedestrians. That's also relatively easy and like a Model S and Model X at this point can drive autonomously with greater safety than a person. Right now. Last question.

My my point is when does it get to be where you don't need to be sitting behind a vehicle and it actually the the way that society starts expecting this is I can have my 75-year-old mother who doesn't speak any English or doesn't drive be able to be transported from point A to point B by just sitting in a car by herself and being taken. I know it's technically possible, but how far do you think the regulatory approvals are for that happening?

I I think we're basically um less than 2 years away from complete autonomy. Wow. Wow, complete. Safer than a human. Um however, regulators will take um I think at least another year, at least another year and it I guess it going to depend on which what part of the world you're in.

Um because they'll want to see billions of miles of data to show that it is statistically true that there is a substantial improvement in safety if something's autonomous versus not autonomous. I don't think that regulators will accept something that's close to that's that's that's sort of approximately as good as a person.

I think they'll have to be at least twice as good as a person, maybe five or 10 times um you know, better in terms of uh safety. Um and and and that will have to be have to be a statistically relevant data set. So, like billions of miles over widely differing uh roads and and situations.

Um So, yeah, you know, that So, I think it's like probably 3 years before it's from a regulatory standpoint, but less than two before it is uh technically possible. And do you think there's a day when it's illegal to drive for humans or uh you know, Well, I mean, we live in a democracy, so it's presumably that would be a function of the population deciding. Um I mean, I'm not I I mean, I'm not in favor of banning people from driving cars.

Um like I'm in favor of freedom. Um and and not restricting what people do. Um Yeah, but maybe the requirements for a license will get more stringent. I think that seems like maybe a good move, you know, so you have to demonstrate a higher level of skill to drive in order to be allowed to manually drive. Okay, very last question. Okay, this is the last question. one. Sorry, we you have to go. has to go. You're going to make it a great question.

All right. Thinking about life on Mars again, how do you how do you think about cultural unification, systems of government, uh rules of law, establishing those uh very early on? Well, I think I'll just declare king of Mars and I'm going to go. Um I like that. Yeah. Take it. Yeah, thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Um so, the the uh I I think most likely the form of government on Mars would be a democ- direct democracy, um not representative.

So, it would be people voting directly on on issues. Um and I think that's probably better cuz like the potential for corruption is substantially diminished in a direct versus a representative democracy. Um so, I think that's probably what will occur. Um the I I think there's some I think so I would recommend like some adjustment for the inertia of laws is what would be wise in that it should probably be easier to remove a law than create one.

Um I think you know, the this is I would just be like let's just I mean, I think I think that's probably probably good cuz just laws laws are have infinite life unless they're taken away. Um so, I think I my recommendation would be like like something like let's say 60% of people need to uh vote in a law, but at any point greater than 40% of people can remove it. Um and any law should come with a sunset with a built-in sunset provision.

If it's not good enough to be voted back in, maybe it shouldn't be there. So, that's that's the framework for the government on Mars. I mean, those that would be my those would be my recommendations. The democ- direct democracy where where it's slightly harder to to put laws in place than to take them away and where laws don't just automatically live forever. You'll be a good king. Thank you, Elon Musk. Thank you. Thank you so much.