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banteg
@banteg · 17. Sept. 2026
>be me
>discover effective altruism
>apparently normal charity is inefficient
>why donate to random sad thing when spreadsheet can tell you optimal sad thing
>fair enough
>buy mosquito nets
>save lives
>numbers look good
>feel powerful
>couple years later
>someone asks an innocent question
>why only coun
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 19. Sept. 2026
Banger
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 19. Sept. 2026
Transparency builds trust
Keith Coleman 🌱😀🙌@kcoleman· 19. Sept. 2026Under The Hood is now widely available - appreciate the patience of those who've been waiting and asking about it.
It already delivered unprecedented transparency, but we wanted to add more. Now you can see if legal demands from a country are causing your visibility to be
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Neuralink
@neuralink · 18. Sept. 2026
Through the VOICE trial, Terry is using his Neuralink implant to help fine-tune a brain-to-voice interface for himself and others who can’t speak. He trained the algorithm first by miming speech as best he could, then by simply thinking the words and hearing them come out in his own natural voice.
Powered by Grok Voice from @SpaceXAI
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DogeDesigner
@cb_doge · 18. Sept. 2026
BREAKING: NASA chief Jared Isaacman says SpaceX is incredible and the United States would be seriously challenged in space without SpaceX.
“They’re our most important launch partner. We can’t send astronauts to and from the space station without them... We are fortunate.”
The All-In Podcast@theallinpod· 18. Sept. 2026All-In Summit: NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman
A New Era for NASA and American Space Exploration
(0:00) NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman lays out the state and future of NASA
(17:59) Moon base, creating new space industries, NASA's next chapter
(23:29) How to make Mars
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DogeDesigner
@cb_doge · 18. Sept. 2026
Grok Bot summary of SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen’s new interview with Tony Kim at SpaceX Mission Control.
Bret’s path
- Came from semiconductors (Qualcomm, Broadcom; was CFO of MindSpeed)
- Barely knew SpaceX / Elon when a board member called
- Thought aerospace sounded “old and stodgy” vs 6-month chip cycles
- Visited the rocket factory, called his wife on the drive home: we’re moving back to LA
- Now sits in the same magical factory: Dragon in the rafters, ~700 launches run from Mission Control, ~40 buildings feeding the campus
- Full circle: semiconductors again via AI / chips
---
Taking on AI complexity (during the biggest IPO ever)
- SpaceX DNA: run toward “impossible” challenges (first booster recovery felt like a rock concert)
- xAI acquisition in January + X + Cursor + Colossus = complexity multi-X in ~1–2 years
- AI is now the biggest business at SpaceX
- Bought time-to-market into the biggest product cycle of their lifetime
- SpaceX leadership DNA applied to that team
- Already feel leading on infra cost and speed
- Products moving: Grok 4.6, 4.7 soon, Grok Bot viral, Cursor strong
- Every week matters; soon every day
---
AI business: the money picture
- ~$100B company ARR exiting this year (annualized on December) — AI is more than half / the majority
- A year ago AI revenue was ~zero
- Capacity: a bit over ~2 GW this year → guidance 5–10 GW by end of next year
- Becoming one of the biggest hyperscalers, fast
Why they move so fast (vertical integration)
- Engineer the data centers themselves
- Act as GC: buildings, power, cooling, networking (plus partners)
- Used to regulators from rockets + telecom
- Removes margin stacking
- Talent transfer: launch-site / pressurized systems people onto data centers — Elon compared it to Yankees vs little league
Hosting model / ROI
- Monetize compute while catching up on software
- Demand knocked: “what are you doing with all that Colossus compute?”
- Short contracts: ~3 months + 3-month out (flexibility for their own future training needs)
- Payback: dramatically less than one year on cutting-edge terrestrial compute
- Hosting customers include tier ones like Anthropic, Google, and others
- Same watts can later flip to their own software at higher $/watt — optionality
Frontier models
- Moving maybe faster than anyone on trajectory
- ~5 serious players; need to be at frontier for recursive improvement
- Coding solutions improving dramatically
- Consumer vs enterprise tools will stratify
- Grok Bot: growing faster than anything they’ve seen; “transformational” user feedback; enterprise coming; expects roll into Cursor
AI safety
- Follow Elon’s self-regulation / peer-review path (like other industries)
- Logical, collaborative, including outside the US
- Hopeful something lands quickly
TAM framing (IPO)
- ~$28T TAM quoted at IPO; AI was ~$25–26T of that (digital AI only)
- Physical AI not even in that number — Bret thinks physical AI eventually bigger than digital
- Launch / space TAM = hundreds of billions (almost rounding vs AI)
- Connectivity (mobile + broadband) ~$2T — still small vs AI
- Differentiation: infra + X content (~500–600M MAUs) + consumer + enterprise push (Cursor etc.)
What to watch: Starship + terrestrial compute
Bret’s prioritization cheat code:
1. Get Starship right
2. Get terrestrial compute right for the next ~2 years until orbital kicks in
→ Transformational financially
Starship status
- Catalyst for all three businesses: space, satellites, AI
- Holy grail: full reusability → another ~10x cheaper $/kg to orbit
- Opens moon boots / lunar base / bigger industry
- Flight 14 later this month: production V3 Starlink broadband satellites — real revenue payload
- One Starship V3 load ≈ ~20× what Falcon 9 flew for Starlink capability
- Each V3 satellite ~1 terabit; ~50–60 per flight = enormous bandwidth per launch
- A couple launches start filling V3 planes; first-half-next-year benefits
- Eventually Starlink as % of global internet traffic
- Connectivity demand from machines (robots, AVs, agents) will dwarf human brains
- Same Starship unlocks next-gen direct-to-cell / direct-to-device
- Same bus + more solar + radiator + compute chips = orbital compute constellation
Reusability timeline
- Flight 15 may attempt catch / bring back first + second stage
- First stage already recovered and reflown
- Flight 13 soft splash best yet; recovered ship like a whale, engineers studied heat shield
- Reliable stage recovery this year; meaningful reflight next year
- Once a few second stages reflight → orbital compute cost can match terrestrial
- Then orbital cost curve goes down (tech / Moore’s law / aircraft-like amortization) while terrestrial gets more expensive (power, labor, regulation, cooling)
- Clean free solar, no community impact
- Industry agrees space compute is the future — debate is timing; others say ~decade; SpaceX flies first ones next year; meaningful compute in ~2028
Scale ambition
- Both cost and speed matter; near-term availability/speed most important
- On track toward ~100 GW/year by end of decade (~20% of entire US grid each year)
- Elon talking terawatt-scale in the 2030s
- Hosting proves staying power + virtuous cycle for industry
- New NVIDIA platforms: just fly the next satellite generation — no whole new terrestrial campus cycle
TerraFab (chips / memory)
- Parallel to orbital ramp, not after
- Not replacing NVIDIA — love the partnership; will buy all they can
- Worry is deeper fab / memory supply chain
- Memory industry ~30%/yr growth vs SpaceX wanting triple-digit — won’t work
- Hard technical challenge; memory may be early focus
- Want volume benefit by late decade (demo next year with Tesla development line → something in ’28 → meaningful ’29+)
Viewer Q&A highlights
**First bottleneck in the AI chain?**
- Chip supply for next year
- Power for infra players (utilities used to ~1% growth; turbines / blades constrained)
- SpaceX standing up investment casting for turbine blades themselves
- Orbital is the big unlock; squeeze every terrestrial watt meanwhile
How to tell durable AI spend vs keep-up spend?
- Bret: durability of revenue; diversified monetization of the same compute; host now, software later at higher $/watt; guided next-year monetization range ~$30–50/watt
- Tony: stack layers have different costs, margins, contract duration; SpaceX spans many layers with <1-year payback on infra
How soon a data center in space?
- First orbital compute satellites end of next year
- Meaningful compute in 2028
- Better phrase: “racks in space,” not giant buildings
- Same V3-like bus + solar + radiator + compute chips
- Already flown ~11,000 sats; launch + inter-sat + ground links already solved
- ~full rack (~72 NVIDIA-class) concept per sat; ~5 MW compute per launch
Tony’s investor wrap
- Still early; trends accelerate into physical AI and beyond Earth
- Connectivity / tokens increasingly for machines, not just humans
---
Bottom line in one breath
SpaceX is using rocket DNA — vertical integration, crazy talent, short-cycle iteration — to become a top AI infra + software player now, while Starship unlocks Starlink V3, direct-to-cell, and orbital “racks in space.” Watch two things: terrestrial compute scale (toward $100B ARR and multi-GW) and Starship reusability. Everything else is downstream of those.
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 19. Sept. 2026
It’s not easy coming up with something that is both outrageously unsellable and yet extremely popular
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 19. Sept. 2026
A Geiger Counter will be offered as an optional strap-on
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 19. Sept. 2026
The next @boringcompany merch will put Uranium in Uranus
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Joe Lonsdale
@JTLonsdale · 18. Sept. 2026
He's applying AI to uncover massive grift & fraud, like the $21B racial wealth transfer he reveals on the show today.
It's no coincidence the far-left wants control of AI - it’s too useful to expose corruption!
Bullish on Brian, and on AI helping to improve our civilization 🇺🇸
American Optimist@AmOptimistShow· 18. Sept. 2026NEW 🚨 Brian Chau Built an AI That Uncovers Fraud — It Exposed AI Doomers & Just Found a $21 Billion Racial Wealth Transfer
@brianchau57 is an investigative journalist using AI to uncover widespread corruption and billions in fraud.
He exposed how Effective Altruism NGOs bought
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 18. Sept. 2026
Wow
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Joe Lonsdale
@JTLonsdale · 18. Sept. 2026
The city only exists and gets away with ANYTHING at the behest of the state, is how the Texas constitution works.
It’s time for a bolder right to step in and turn off cities’ grift and mayhem, and fix a lot of the nonsense.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 18. Sept. 2026
Yes
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DogeDesigner
@cb_doge · 18. Sept. 2026
🚨 JENSEN HUANG: “2030 is not going to be the end of the world. There is zero percent chance that's going to be the end of the world. I completely disagree that AI is going to destroy, is going to be the end of the world in 2030.”
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 18. Sept. 2026
But things will be weird for sure
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KanekoaTheGreat
@KanekoaTheGreat · 28. Aug. 2026
Someone gave the leading AI models the Political Compass test.
Grok 4.5 landed by far closest to the political center.
Every model from Anthropic, Google, Meta, OpenAI, Deepseek, and others clustered far to the left.
This is why building a maximally truth-seeking AI matters.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 18. Sept. 2026
Interesting
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 18. Sept. 2026
🧐
Michael Shellenberger@shellenberger· 18. Sept. 2026Last year, the French government launched a criminal investigation into Elon Musk's X over evidence of "foreign interference." But now the man who sent the letter that triggered the investigation admits to me that he was targeting Musk's politics, not any foreign interference.
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KanekoaTheGreat
@KanekoaTheGreat · 28. Aug. 2026
Someone gave the leading AI models the Political Compass test.
Grok 4.5 landed by far closest to the political center.
Every model from Anthropic, Google, Meta, OpenAI, Deepseek, and others clustered far to the left.
This is why building a maximally truth-seeking AI matters.
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Katie Miller
@KatieMiller · 18. Sept. 2026
Taps sign
Ben Mullin@BenMullin· 18. Sept. 2026News: Forbes is cutting staff, a decision its CEO, Sherry Phillips, attributes to “revenue shortfalls in the first half of the year.” Memo:
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Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 18. Sept. 2026
My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.
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Wes
@wmorrill3 · 18. Sept. 2026
Suspicious that everyone agreed to "pace the frontier" on the same day WoW Forever was announced...
“we must make wise use of the time we gain.”
World of Warcraft@Warcraft· 12. Sept. 2026Carve A New Path In A Legendary World.
WoW: Forever launches on November 4, 2026.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 18. Sept. 2026
😂
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French Carcan
@FrenchCarcan · 17. Sept. 2026
🔴 Sandrine Rousseau : Elon Musk est un C*NNARD de suprémaciste !
✅ @sandrousseau hurle des insanités à propos d'@elonmusk, et intime aux victimes présentes, l'ordre de quitter 𝕏.
@humanite_fr - Fête de l'Humanité 2026 - Village des médias indépendants🕵️@humanite_fr
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 18. Sept. 2026
She is a traitor to France
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Wombstretcha The Magnificent
@wombstretcha503 · 18. Sept. 2026
It's not illegal to be gay, what the hell? They draped rainbow flags on the White House.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 18. Sept. 2026
Yeah, he’s a huge retard
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Clown World ™ 🤡
@ClownWorld · 18. Sept. 2026
A Georgia woman is wanted by police after RAMMING another driver’s car and then coming back and SHOOTING at it.
And what started all of this? The other driver HONKED at her. 😳
Police say 23-year-old Sierra Iman Little pulled out in front of another driver, who honked. She
Elon Musk
@elonmusk · 18. Sept. 2026
!!
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